Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 30

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	16:00	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	14:00	Canal del Futbol
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 5
Usa	15:00	Fanatiz


	Coritiba		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.40	2.32	Watch
	2.75	3.50	2.45
	2.65	3.45	2.48	Watch
	2.93	3.55	2.50
	2.66	3.64	2.53	Watch
	2.90	3.45	2.45
	3.02	3.42	2.39	Watch
	2.75	3.50	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.7)	3.49 ↑ (3.4)	2.44 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
33.6%

Draw
27.3%

Botafogo RJ
39.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.5%

27.4%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

26.3%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Coritiba - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Coritiba (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 14. Bustos F. 55. Jacy (C) 23. Tiago Coser 6. Felipe Jonatan 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. 18. Paulo Roberto 10. Josue 7. Lavega J. 32. Pedro Rocha	12. Gabriel Batista (G) 2. Vitinho 5. Ferraresi N. 21. Marcal 13. Alex Telles (C) 8. Danilo Santos 25. Allan 22. Ziyech H. 6. Medina C. 11. Matheus Martins 19. Arthur Cabral
Substitutes
77. Breno Lopes 5. Fonseca N. 39. Gustavo 3. Maicon 17. Ocampo B. 22. Pedro Rangel (G) 78. Renato Marques 66. Rodrigo Gelado 4. Rodrigo Moledo 99. Rodrigo Rodrigues 2. Tinga 36. Vini Paulista	91. Andrade D. 37. Barria K. 90. Danilo Pereira 75. Huguinho 7. Junior Santos 34. Justino G. 59. Kauan Toledo 10. Montoro A. 29. Paulinho 4. Ponte M. 9. Tiquinho Soares 17. Warleson (G)
Coaches
Fernando Seabra	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Marcal (Own goal),
34', 1 - 1, Danilo Santos ⚽, Medina C. (A),
45', Allan 🟨,
45+3', Bustos F. 🟨,
45+4', Gomez S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Thiago Santos 🟨,
56', Bustos F. ↓, Tinga ↑,
56', Thiago Santos ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
64', Felipe Jonatan ↓, Rodrigo Gelado ↑,
64', Lavega J. ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
66', Tiago Coser 🟨,
66', Marcal 🟨,
73', Allan ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
73', Ziyech H. ↓, Andrade D. ↑,
77', Arthur Cabral ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
77', Medina C. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
84', Josue ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
86', Matheus Martins ↓, Paulinho ↑,
88', Rodrigo Gelado 🟨,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 10th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 1.

Coritiba is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Botafogo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Botafogo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Coritiba: Bruno Melo (Yellow Cards) Keno (Knee Injury) Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury) Lucas Taverna (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Inactive) Tiago Coser (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Botafogo: Barrera J. (Ankle Injury) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Coritiba: Jacy (Injury) Ocampo B. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba has recorded 3 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:29 (averaging 0.9:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Coritiba against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 11:11 goals (averaging 1.2:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Botafogo RJ	32	10	9	13	44:51	-7	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38:50	-12	39

Last Results with these Odds

Coritiba - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Botafogo RJ - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.05%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.26	Fluminense - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:0 ✺
11.09.26	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	3:3 ✺
06.09.26	Coritiba - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Remo - Coritiba	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTLW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
07.10.26	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Coritiba	2:2
29.11.23	Coritiba - Botafogo RJ	1:1
30.07.23	Botafogo RJ - Coritiba	4:1
17.09.22	Botafogo RJ - Coritiba	2:0
29.05.22	Coritiba - Botafogo RJ	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
27.08.21	Coritiba - Botafogo RJ	0:1
05.06.21	Botafogo RJ - Coritiba	2:0

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