Match Info

BRAZIL: Paranaense - Round 11

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Durival Britto e Silva (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, NSports, Sky+, Vivo Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Paraná Clube Curitiba		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	7	3.3	1.57
	5.6	3.45	1.57
	5.13	3.81	1.59
	5.88	3.6	1.56	Watch
	4	3.6	1.73
	6.08	3.56	1.53	Watch
	5.6	3.45	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.61 ↓ (6.08)	3.54 ↑ (3.5)	1.59 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paraná Clube Curitiba
16.3%

Draw
25.9%

Coritiba
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15%

26%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

25.9%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paraná Clube Curitiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paraná Clube Curitiba than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. da Silva Santos T. D. (G) 5. Bruno Vinicius 2. Daniel Guedes 14. Diego Ivo 7. Diego Tavares 32. Erik Bessa 30. Felix Jorge (C) 6. Kevin 37. Leo Silva 8. Oliveira Dias C. E. 11. Rikelmi	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 49. Dellatorre 37. Everaldo 8. Filipe Machado 2. Fracchia M. 19. Gomez S. 16. Joao Vitor 18. Matheus Bianqui 13. Rafinha (C) 4. Rodrigo Moledo 36. Vini Paulista
Substitutes
27. Cassio 20. Danilo Nazare 33. Domingos 1. Gabriel Gasparotto (G) 19. Gustavo Sagui 39. Joesley 18. Leo Cesar 31. Lorenzo 38. Lucas Mazetti 34. Martins V. 3. Tony Lucas 35. Wallace	67. Benassi (G) 22. Felipe Guimaraes 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 38. Geovane Meurer 44. Joao Pedro 9. Junior Brumado 34. Renan Gustavo 6. Rodrigo Gelado 97. Ruan Assis 50. Tissi 57. Wesley Pomba

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Vini Paulista ⚽,
28', Bruno Vinicius 🟨,
36', Oliveira Dias C. E. 🟨,
39', Diego Ivo 🟥,
39', da Silva Santos T. D. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 2, Dellatorre ⚽,
45+5', Joao Vitor 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Erik Bessa ↓, Leo Cesar ↑,
46', Kevin ↓, Tony Lucas ↑,
47', Rafinha 🟨,
60', Rikelmi ↓, Cassio ↑,
60', Rafinha ↓, Felipe Guimaraes ↑,
60', Joao Vitor ↓, Rodrigo Gelado ↑,
67', Dellatorre ↓, Junior Brumado ↑,
73', Bruno Vinicius ↓, Wallace ↑,
73', Filipe Machado ↓, Geovane ↑,
73', Vini Paulista ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Paranaense 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Paraná is Relegated to Paranaense 2

Coritiba is Qualified for Paranaense (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paraná won 0.

Recent matches Paraná is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Coritiba is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Coritiba could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Coritiba is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Paraná won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 9:18 (average 0.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Paraná won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:4 (average 0.8:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paraná Clube Curitiba
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
12.02.25	Cianorte - Paraná Clube Curitiba	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	São-Joseense - Paraná Clube Curitiba	2:1 ✺
04.02.25	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Maringá	0:0 ✺
01.02.25	Rio Branco PR - Paraná Clube Curitiba	0:1 ✺
29.01.25	Paraná Clube Curitiba - FC Cascavel	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWT
- Coritiba
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
11.02.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Azuriz - Coritiba	0:2 ✺
05.02.25	Coritiba - Rio Branco PR	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Cianorte - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
30.01.25	Coritiba - Andraus	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
20.02.22	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba	1:2
24.04.21	Coritiba - Paraná Clube Curitiba	5:0
23.07.20	Coritiba - Paraná Clube Curitiba	2:1
19.07.20	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba	0:1
26.01.20	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
05.10.19	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba	2:0
08.06.19	Coritiba - Paraná Clube Curitiba	2:3

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