Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Covadonga		Llanes

	1	X	2
	1.25	4.95	9.2
	1.28	4.96	9.9	Watch
	1.29	4.75	9.5
	1.27	4.7	9.85
	1.23	5.33	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.37)	4.94 ↑ (4.41)	9.69 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Covadonga
72.1%

Draw
18.5%

Llanes
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

20.6%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.4%

19.7%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covadonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Covadonga's performance.

Llanes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covadonga than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanes than the current prediction. (+3%)

Covadonga - Llanes Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Covadonga (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Covadonga (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Covadonga (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 2 (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Covadonga won 3.

Covadonga is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Llanes has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Llanes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Covadonga is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Covadonga will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Covadonga won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Covadonga won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Covadonga	5	4	1	0	14:4	10	13
15	Llanes	5	0	3	2	6:12	-6	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Covadonga
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
20.12.25	Sporting de Gijón B - Covadonga	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Covadonga - LEntregu	3:0 ✺
06.12.25	Colunga - Covadonga	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Covadonga - Mosconia	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Ceares - Covadonga	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWWWW
- CD Llanes
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
21.12.25	Llanes - Avilés Stadium	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Llanera - Llanes	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Llanes - Real Titánico	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Llanes - Tuilla	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Sporting de Gijón B - Llanes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
05.03.23	Llanes - Covadonga	1:3
30.10.22	Covadonga - Llanes	0:0
01.05.22	Covadonga - Llanes	3:1
19.12.21	Llanes - Covadonga	1:0
Club Friendly
24.09.20	Covadonga - Llanes	1:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
26.01.20	Covadonga - Llanes	2:2
10.02.19	Covadonga - Llanes	4:1

Covadonga - Llanes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide