Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	3.35	2.92	2.1
	4.21	3.16	2.05
	3.55	2.99	2.2	Watch
	3.4	2.8	2.1
	3.67	3.26	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (3.49)	3.03 ↑ (2.95)	2.1 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
25.4%

Draw
30.5%

Lusitano GC
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

31%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

29.9%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Covilhã - Lusitano GC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 26. Balsa C. 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. (C) 3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 19. Cruz F. 20. Ferreira R. 55. Garcia F. 96. Jailson 79. Liberal A. 27. Pimenta T.	22. Martins D. (G) 10. Aguas M. 11. Almara F. 8. Baptista T. 14. Cande B. 53. Carvalho E. 9. Lopes D. 37. Monteiro R. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. 77. Tipote L.
Substitutes
90. Diancoumba S. 22. Gomes Silva E. 74. Igreja T. (G) 30. Matos S. 10. Mica 97. N'Diaye M. 99. Niang C. 13. Ribeiro P. 11. Silva J.	6. Andrade M. 30. Davou S. 29. Isnaba G. 99. Lucao 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 5. Palancha T. 23. Pereira F. 21. Soares M. 17. Vicente G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Tipote L. ⚽, Pinto J. (A),
18', Cruz F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
20', 0 - 2, Calegari A. (Own goal),
25', Almara F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Barbosa A. ↓, Niang C. ↑,
46', Santana C. 🟨,
65', 1 - 2, Niang C. ⚽, Calegari A. (A),
68', Garcia F. ↓, Gomes Silva E. ↑,
68', Jailson ↓, Matos S. ↑,
75', Tipote L. 🟨,
75', Tipote L. ↓, Davou S. ↑,
75', Baptista T. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
82', Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. ↓, Mica ↑,
90', Almara F. 🟥,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', Liberal A. ↓, Diancoumba S. ↑,
90+4', Aguas M. ↓, Andrade M. ↑,
90+6', Lopes D. ↓, Soares M. ↑,
90+8', 1 - 3, Davou S. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lusitano GC will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Covilhã won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Lusitano GC - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 42.85%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Amora - Covilhã	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 LWWWL
- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Lusitano GC - Amora	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
04.01.26	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	2:1
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	0:2
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:1
Taça de Portugal
24.09.23	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	0:1 penalties

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