Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Criciúma		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.80	6.50	Watch
	1.52	3.90	5.75
	1.53	3.95	6.00	Watch
	1.55	4.00	7.52
	1.72	3.4	5.14	Watch
	1.49	3.95	7.40
	1.52	3.80	6.84	Watch
	1.54	3.85	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.92)	3.83 ↑ (3.35)	6.39 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
60.8%

Draw
24.5%

Náutico Capibaribe
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

27.8%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

27%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Criciúma's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Criciúma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.2%	10.3%	3.4%

Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: Criciúma will win (25 of 29 users predict this - 86.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.66% – 98.76%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Criciúma will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
70. Pedro Santos (G) 37. Cesar Martins 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 97. Willean Lepo 5. Eduardo 8. Gui Lobo 22. Marcelo Hermes 91. Otero R. 13. Waguininho 7. Fellipe Mateus	1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 46. Gustavo Henrique 15. Leo Indio 14. Matheus Ribeiro 41. Samuel Felix 8. Wenderson 27. Luiz Felipe 20. Jean Carlos (C) 72. Derek 19. Kauan Maranhao
Substitutes
1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 88. Caue Santos 77. Diego Goncalves 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 9. Nicolas 11. Romarinho 14. Ronald Lopes 50. Thiaguinho	5. Auremir 3. Betao 24. Borasi B. 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 37. Juan Rikelme 16. Luiz Claudio 93. Reginaldo 11. Victor Andrade 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Luiz Felipe ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
30', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
40', Matheus Ribeiro 🟨,
45+1', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Betao ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Wanderson ↑,
48', Betao 🟨,
59', Eduardo ↓, Nicolas ↑,
67', Waguininho ↓, Jhonata Robert ↑,
68', Otero R. ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
68', Samuel Felix ↓, Auremir ↑,
68', Derek ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
82', Gui Lobo ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
82', Luciano Castan ↓, Hiago Alves ↑,
90', Wenderson 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 3.

Criciúma is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Náutico is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Náutico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Criciúma is the team to beat.

There will not play in Criciúma: Airton (Inactive) Yuri Tanque (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Náutico: Igor Fernandes (Yellow Cards) Paulo Sergio (Injury) Vinicius (Inactive)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Marcinho (Inactive) Octavio Henrique (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Náutico: Dodo (Inactive) Leonai Souza (Inactive)

We predict that Criciúma will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 1.4:0.2).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Criciuma: 5.88% Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
21.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Criciúma - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
08.07.26	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
04.07.26	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Goiás	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1
07.10.22	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
29.06.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	1:1
14.11.17	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
29.07.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	1:2
20.08.16	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1
14.05.16	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0

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