Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 29

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Criciúma		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.9	7	Watch
	1.5	3.85	6.3
	1.51	3.97	7.59
	2.06	2.37	6.12	Watch
	1.53	3.88	6.68	Watch
	1.7	3.55	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.69)	3.59 ↑ (3.55)	6.4 ↑ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Criciúma
58.6%

Draw
26.6%

Paysandu
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

26%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

24.7%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Criciúma - Paysandu Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Criciúma (2.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Criciúma (2.04) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH -1 - Criciúma (2.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Criciúma will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alisson (G) 34. Lucas Dias 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 6. Marcinho 5. Matheus Trindade 25. Guilherme Lobo 10. Jhonata Robert 76. Felipinho 9. Nicolas 19. Borasi B.	13. Matheus Nogueira (C) 2. Edilson 35. Mauricio Antonio 6. Thalisson 16. Reverson 25. Ronaldo Henrique 8. Andre Lima 20. Denner 10. Mauricio Garcez 11. Marlon Douglas 98. Denilson
Substitutes
77. Diego Goncalves 7. Fellipe Mateus 95. Georgemy (G) 11. Gustavo Maia 20. Jean Carlos 21. Joao Carlos 13. Jonathan 68. Jota 50. Juninho 15. Leo Mana 88. Luiz Henrique 2. Yan Souto	38. Carlos Eduardo 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 39. Goncalves P. 36. Gustavo Nicola 30. Marcelinho 19. Petterson Novaes 3. Quintana Y. 43. Ramon Vinicius 99. Vinicius Faria 26. Wendel
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Marcio Fernandes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
14', 1 - 0, Jhonata Robert ⚽, Felipinho (A),
31', 1 - 1, Reverson ⚽,
44', 1 - 2, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Marlon Douglas (A),
45+4', 2 - 2, Nicolas ⚽, Marcinho (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Lucas Dias ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
46', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
46', Borasi B. ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
58', Denilson ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
65', Felipinho 🟥,
68', 2 - 3, Marlon Douglas ⚽, Reverson (A),
72', Matheus Trindade ↓, Juninho ↑,
76', Denner ↓, Ramon Vinicius ↑,
76', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
78', Nicolas ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
79', 2 - 4, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Mauricio Antonio (A),
84', Mauricio Garcez ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
85', Marlon Douglas ↓, Marcelinho ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 3.

Criciúma is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paysandu has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Criciúma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Criciúma is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Criciúma: Caue (Inactive) Heitor Roca (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Paysandu: Bryan Borges (Yellow Cards) Matheus Vargas (Injury) Rossi (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Kaua Moroso (Back Injury) Leo Alaba (Injury) Leo Naldi (Injury)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Leandro Vilela (Injury)

We predict that Criciúma will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
25.09.25	Coritiba - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Criciúma - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
20.09.25	Atlético Tubarão - Criciúma	0:4 ✺
14.09.25	Criciúma - Camboriú	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.09.25	Volta Redonda - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWWT
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.25	Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Goiás - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Paysandu - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	CRB Maceio - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.06.25	Paysandu - Criciúma	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
06.11.21	Paysandu - Criciúma	0:1
03.10.21	Criciúma - Paysandu	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
22.09.18	Paysandu - Criciúma	1:1
05.06.18	Criciúma - Paysandu	4:1
27.10.17	Paysandu - Criciúma	1:0
11.07.17	Criciúma - Paysandu	1:1

Upcoming Matches