Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 28

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Coritiba		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.3	5.5	Watch
	1.72	3.2	5.15
	1.89	3.16	5.25
	1.91	3.16	4.37	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.94	Watch
	1.94	3.15	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.89)	3.21 ↑ (3)	4.87 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
51.5%

Draw
29.2%

Criciúma
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

30.7%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

32.8%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	30.8%	30.8%

Coritiba - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Criciúma will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coritiba: 6.6% – 60%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Criciúma (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Criciúma will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 23. Tiago Coser 3. Maicon 55. Jacy 16. Joao Almeida 70. Wallisson 11. Lucas Ronier 19. Gomez S. (C) 10. Josue 36. Vini Paulista 9. Gustavo Coutinho	1. Alisson (C) 3. Rodrigo 34. Lucas Dias 4. Luciano Castan 6. Marcinho 5. Matheus Trindade 25. Guilherme Lobo 76. Felipinho 10. Jhonata Robert 77. Diego Goncalves 9. Nicolas
Substitutes
26. Bruno Melo 25. Clayson 27. de Pena C. 37. Everaldo 22. Felipe Guimaraes 8. Filipe Machado 5. Geovane 15. Guilherme Aquino 77. Iury Castilho 7. Nicolas Careca 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 73. Zeca	19. Borasi B. 32. Fabricio 7. Fellipe Mateus 95. Georgemy (G) 11. Gustavo Maia 20. Jean Carlos 21. Joao Carlos 68. Jota 50. Juninho 15. Leo Mana 88. Luiz Henrique 2. Yan Souto
Coaches
Mozart	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Josue 🟨,
21', Marcinho 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽, Jhonata Robert (A),
36', 0 - 2, Nicolas ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Joao Almeida ↓, Bruno Melo ↑,
46', Tiago Coser ↓, Zeca ↑,
46', Vini Paulista ↓, Clayson ↑,
59', Marcinho ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
59', Nicolas ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
59', Wallisson ↓, Filipe Machado ↑,
59', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
71', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
74', Lucas Ronier 🟨,
77', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
79', Filipe Machado 🟨,
84', Diego Goncalves ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
84', Jhonata Robert ↓, Yan Souto ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 3.

Coritiba has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Criciúma is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Coritiba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Coritiba is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Coritiba: Alex Silva (Injury) Gabriel Leite (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Caue (Inactive) Heitor Roca (Knee Injury) Juninho (Yellow Cards) Leo Alaba (Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Kaua Moroso (Back Injury) Leo Naldi (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.25	América Mineiro - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Coritiba - Goiás	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Coritiba - Ferroviária	4:0 ✺
29.08.25	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Coritiba - Remo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTWLT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.25	Criciúma - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
20.09.25	Atlético Tubarão - Criciúma	0:4 ✺
14.09.25	Criciúma - Camboriú	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.09.25	Volta Redonda - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
10.09.25	Caravaggio - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.05.25	Criciúma - Coritiba	0:1
Copa do Brasil
14.03.23	Coritiba - Criciúma	2:1 penalties
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.19	Coritiba - Criciúma	1:0
09.07.19	Criciúma - Coritiba	2:1
21.08.18	Criciúma - Coritiba	2:2
27.04.18	Coritiba - Criciúma	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.14	Coritiba - Criciúma	1:0

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