Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 16

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Criciúma		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	4.33	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4.33
	1.88	3.1	4.35	Watch
	1.98	3.2	4.71
				Watch
	1.85	3.2	4.5
	1.9	3.28	4.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.83)	3.18 ↑ (3.1)	4.43 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
49.5%

Draw
29.4%

Ferroviária
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

29.9%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

29%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Criciúma - Ferroviária Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Criciúma (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kaua Moroso (G) 6. Marcinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 2. Yan Souto 5. Matheus Trindade 25. Guilherme Lobo 76. Felipinho 10. Jhonata Robert 77. Diego Goncalves 9. Nicolas	41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 66. Edson Lucas 35. Netinho 5. Ricardinho 77. Juninho 20. Albano 39. Thayllon 92. Carlao
Substitutes
14. Benevenuto 22. Bernardes Lopes A. (G) 40. Everton Morelli 7. Fellipe Mateus 11. Gustavo Maia 20. Jean Carlos 21. Joao Carlos 50. Juninho 23. Leo Alaba 18. Leo Naldi 88. Luiz Henrique 99. Sassa	8. Alencar 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 44. Maycon 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 37. Thiago Lopes 57. Wesley Pomba 31. Ze Mario
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Thayllon ⚽, Carlao (A),
14', Matheus Trindade 🟨,
30', Albano 🟨,
40', Ricardinho 🟨,
41', Jhonata Robert 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Marcinho ⚽, Felipinho (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
57', Jhonata Robert ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
58', Albano ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
58', Netinho ↓, Alencar ↑,
66', Diego Goncalves ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
66', Yan Souto ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
67', Thayllon ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
67', Juninho ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Jean Carlos ⚽, Felipinho (A),
80', Matheus Trindade ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
80', Marcinho ↓, Benevenuto ↑,
83', Ricardinho ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
87', Joao Carlos ↓, Leo Alaba ↑,
89', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Kevin ↑,
90+3', Wesley Pomba 🟨,
90+4', Leo Alaba 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Criciúma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Criciúma is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Criciúma: Thales (Inactive)

There will not play in Ferroviária: Gustavo Jundi (Inactive) Ze Mario (Inactive)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Gabriel Barros (Inactive) Gabriel Novaes (Inactive) Heitor Roca (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.62%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
08.07.25	Goiás - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
27.06.25	Criciúma - Avaí	1:2 ✺
20.06.25	América Mineiro - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Criciúma - Amazonas	3:2 ✺
09.06.25	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLTWW
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
06.07.25	Ferroviária - Vila Nova	1:3 ✺
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Ferroviária - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
16.06.25	Chapecoense - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	América Mineiro - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LLWLW

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