Match Info

Torneo Federal - Losers stage - Round 4

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí (Garupá)


	Crucero del Norte		Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.25	2.82
	2.21	2.95	3.19
	2.37	3.19	2.94	Watch
	2.26	3.04	3.05
	2.71	3.08	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.71)	3.1 ↑ (3.08)	2.89 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crucero del Norte
38.9%

Draw
29.5%

Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

29.5%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.8%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crucero del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crucero del Norte's performance.

Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crucero del Norte than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crucero del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Crucero del Norte - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Colli J. (G) 2. Aguilar J. 11. Alvarez E. 7. Alvarez M. 3. Canzoniero L. 6. Duarte C. 9. Penazola J. 4. Rotela F. 10. Sequeyra J. 5. Silva L. 8. Vera J.	1. Bravo P. (G) 8. Altamirano L. 9. Baltore D. 3. Basualdo L. 10. Favre A. 11. Germanier N. 6. Gomez N. 5. Hofstetter P. J. 2. Sanchez M. 7. Soto L. 4. Suarez N.
Substitutes
17. Araujo A. A. 13. Arias J. 14. Dominguez B. 20. Golomba N. 19. Lemes 15. Mayorga S. 16. Orellana L. 18. Santa Cruz M. 12. Semeniuk K. (G)	18. Bogado M. 15. Chiappella 16. Cima F. 17. Dening L. 12. Etcheverry B. (G) 14. Gonzalez A. 20. Mainero A. 19. Malimberni S. 13. Olague R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Sanchez M. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Vera J. ⚽,
44', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', 🟨,
82', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crucero del Norte won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Crucero del Norte won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Crucero del Norte won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crucero del Norte
Argentinian Torneo Federal
02.08.25	Sportivo Las Parejas - Crucero del Norte	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Crucero del Norte - Sol de América de Formosa	2:3 ✺
20.07.25	Bartolomé Mitre - Crucero del Norte	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Crucero del Norte - Boca Unidos	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Crucero del Norte	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LLTTL
- Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay
Argentinian Torneo Federal
03.08.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Sarmiento de Resistencia	1:2 ✺
28.07.25	El Linqueño - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Boca Unidos	0:3 ✺
13.07.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
25.08.24	Crucero del Norte - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	1:0
15.07.22	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Crucero del Norte	1:0
03.04.22	Crucero del Norte - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	2:0
08.10.21	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Crucero del Norte	1:1
11.07.21	Crucero del Norte - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	3:0
15.03.20	Crucero del Norte - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	2:1
19.10.19	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Crucero del Norte	1:1

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