Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 18

Date: 21 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Peru	L1 Play
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.55	2.95	3.2
	2.5	2.95	3.1
	2.44	3.16	3.21
	2.49	2.98	3.2	Watch
	2.38	3	3.1
	2.53	3.04	3.05	Watch
	2.44	2.95	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.37)	3 ↓ (3.3)	3.12 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
38.2%

Draw
31.5%

Fluminense
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

28.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Cuiabá - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Fluminense will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cuiabá: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 7. Jonathan Cafu 88. Fernando Sobral 30. Lucas Mineiro 27. Denilson Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 9. Pitta I.	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Silva T. (C) 29. Thiago Santos 6. Diogo Barbosa 7. Andre 8. Martinelli 21. Arias J. 10. PH Ganso 77. Marquinhos 14. Cano G.
Substitutes
3. Allyson 97. Andre Luis 34. Bruno Alves 25. Clayson 16. Deyverson 11. Eliel 5. Filipe Augusto 8. Guilherme Madruga 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 10. Max Alves 21. Railan 20. Rikelme	5. Alexsander 25. Antonio Carlos 53. Esquerdinha 13. Felipe Andrade 23. Guga 32. Isaac 9. John Kennedy 19. Kaua Elias 11. Keno 16. Nonato 20. Renato Augusto 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Petit	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Martinelli 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fernando Sobral ↓, Max Alves ↑,
46', Martinelli ↓, Alexsander ↑,
57', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Deyverson ↑,
60', Marquinhos ↓, Keno ↑,
67', Ramon 🟨,
67', Cano G. ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Kaua Elias ⚽, Arias J. (A),
75', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Clayson ↑,
83', PH Ganso ↓, Nonato ↑,
84', Derik Lacerda ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
90', Arias J. 🟨,
90+6', Guga 🟥,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 1.

Recent matches Cuiabá is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fluminense is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fluminense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Cuiabá will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Fluminense: Lele (Injury) Lima (Muscle Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.24	Palestino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.24	Bahia - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
06.07.24	Flamengo - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
03.07.24	Cuiabá - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
29.06.24	Cuiabá - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 TWTLT
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
11.07.24	Criciúma - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
07.07.24	Fortaleza - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
04.07.24	Fluminense - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
30.06.24	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
27.06.24	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
30.09.23	Cuiabá - Fluminense	3:0
13.05.23	Fluminense - Cuiabá	2:0
07.08.22	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0
16.04.22	Cuiabá - Fluminense	0:1
20.09.21	Cuiabá - Fluminense	2:2
06.06.21	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0

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