Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Cuiabá		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.7	3	Watch
	2.58	2.78	3	Watch
	2.74	2.94	3.2
	2.59	2.54	3.5	Watch
	2.5	2.63	3.1
	2.61	2.73	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.28)	2.72 (2.72)	3.15 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
35.8%

Draw
34.4%

Grêmio Novorizontino
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

34.3%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

32.8%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cuiabá's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cuiabá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Cuiabá - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Novorizontino (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Novorizontino (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Marcelo Carne (G) 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 13. Joao Basso 6. Marlon 37. Raylan 30. Raul (C) 5. Calebe Costa 88. David Miguel 41. Kauan Cristtyan 53. Weverson 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 20. Castrillon N. 3. Carlinhos 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 50. Juninho 18. Leo Naldi 17. Matheus Bianqui 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
7. Asad Y. 50. Felipetto Colen Barcellos P. 1. Joao Carlos (G) 91. Luis Soares 19. Mateus Santos 99. Nathan Cruz 2. Nino Paraiba 17. Victor Barbara 29. Vinicius Peixoto	9. Carlao 19. Diego Galo 77. Helio Borges 22. Ivan Alvarino 93. Jordi (G) 21. Kauan Alemao 28. Marlon 8. Ortiz C. 33. Renato Palm 7. Ronald Barcellos 15. Tavinho
Coaches
Barros E.	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Robson 🟨,
45+3', Gabriel Knesowitsch 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gabriel Knesowitsch ↓, Asad Y. ↑,
60', Cesar Augusto ↓, Jordi ↑,
60', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
61', Kauan Cristtyan ↓, Mateus Santos ↑,
66', David Miguel 🟨,
76', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
76', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Marlon ↑,
76', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Vinicius Peixoto ↑,
77', Vinicius Peixoto 🟨,
85', Juninho ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
90+4', Maykon Jesus 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cuiabá is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) Eric Melo (Yellow Cards) Hernades (Injury) Lorenzo (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Inactive) Vitor Mendes (Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Eduardo Brock (Injury) Gabriel Bahia (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Nicolas Careca (Injury) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Diego Mathias (Inactive) Luis Oyama (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Including home match between the teams, Cuiabá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63% Cuiaba: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Cuiabá - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
29.04.26	Anápolis - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Goiás - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TTLTW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.26	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.10.25	Cuiabá - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
15.06.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá	3:0

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