Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 27

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
World	Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.88	2.55	Watch
	2.95	2.9	2.65
	3	2.9	2.6
	3.19	2.92	2.67
	3.12	2.83	2.66	Watch
	2.7	3	2.62
	2.99	2.99	2.61	Watch
	3	2.9	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.58)	2.92 ↓ (3.23)	2.62 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
31.5%

Draw
32.4%

Cruzeiro
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.3%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

30.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cuiabá's form might have worsened.

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cuiabá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	36.4%	54.5%

Cuiabá - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 34. Bruno Alves 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 30. Lucas Mineiro 88. Fernando Sobral 18. Lucas Fernandes 19. Gustavo Sauer 22. Derik Lacerda 25. Clayson	1. Cassio (G) 34. Jonathan Jesus 43. Joao Marcelo 25. Villalba L. 12. William Furtado 33. Peralta F. 17. Ramiro (C) 7. Mateus Vital 6. Kaiki 30. Gabriel Veron 9. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
27. Denilson Alves 11. Eliel 44. Gabriel 8. Guilherme Madruga 7. Jonathan Cafu 63. Juan Tavares 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 10. Max Alves 21. Railan	98. Anderson (G) 21. Barreal A. 26. Diaz L. 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 3. Marlon 10. Matheus Pereira 29. Romero L. 2. Wesley Gasolina 44. Weverton 5. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Franco B.	Seabra F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Peralta F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Peralta F. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
58', Mateus Vital ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
58', Gabriel Veron ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
66', Kaiki ↓, Marlon ↑,
71', Derik Lacerda ↓, Eliel ↑,
71', Gustavo Sauer ↓, Denilson Alves ↑,
72', Jonathan Jesus ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
81', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
83', Joao Marcelo 🟥,
90+2', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Max Alves ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Cuiabá is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cruzeiro is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cuiabá could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Rafa Silva (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Copa FMF Mato Grosso
21.09.24	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.09.24	Internacional RS - Cuiabá	3:0 ✺
05.09.24	Cuiabá - Juventude	0:0 ✺
31.08.24	Cuiabá - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTWL
- Cruzeiro MG
Copa Sudamericana
19.09.24	Libertad Asuncion - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Goianiense	3:1 ✺
28.08.24	Cruzeiro - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
25.08.24	Internacional RS - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
13.06.24	Cruzeiro - Cuiabá	2:1
14.10.23	Cuiabá - Cruzeiro	0:0
22.05.23	Cruzeiro - Cuiabá	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
29.12.20	Cruzeiro - Cuiabá	0:0
03.10.20	Cuiabá - Cruzeiro	1:0

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