Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 24

Date: 24 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Indonesia	Mola TV
Peru	L1 Play
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Gol Stadium
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	8	Watch
	1.46	4.4	7.25
	1.44	4.33	7.5
	1.44	4.55	8
	1.48	4.39	7.69	Watch
	1.44	4	7
	1.45	4.4	7.4	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.36)	4.34 ↓ (4.75)	7.54 ↓ (8.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
65.5%

Draw
21.9%

Cuiabá
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

19.9%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

10.8%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-27.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palmeiras that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cuiabá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	7.7%	23.1%

Palmeiras - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Weverton (C) 12. Mayke 34. Naves 26. Murilo 16. Caio Paulista 27. Rios R. 5. Moreno A. 18. Mauricio 41. Estevao 42. Flaco Lopez 9. Felipe Anderson	1. Walter (C) 21. Railan 4. Marllon 34. Bruno Alves 44. Gabriel 63. Juan Tavares 27. Denilson Alves 30. Lucas Mineiro 10. Max Alves 18. Lucas Fernandes 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
35. Fabinho 4. Giay A. 17. Lazaro 57. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 1. Mateus Oliveira (G) 23. Raphael Veiga 20. Romulo 10. Rony 6. Vanderlan	97. Andre Luis 25. Clayson 22. Derik Lacerda 11. Eliel 88. Fernando Sobral 5. Filipe Augusto 8. Guilherme Madruga 13. Hernandes 7. Jonathan Cafu 6. Marcelo Henrique 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 91. Soares L.
Coaches
Ferreira A.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Murilo ⚽, Estevao (A),
21', Mayke ↓, Marcos Rocha ↑,
27', 2 - 0, Estevao (Pen),
32', 3 - 0, Estevao ⚽, Rios R. (A),
38', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Derik Lacerda ↑,
38', Gabriel ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
45+2', 4 - 0, Mauricio ⚽, Flaco Lopez (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Rios R. 🟨,
56', 5 - 0, Felipe Anderson ⚽, Estevao (A),
60', Denilson Alves ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
60', Max Alves ↓, Filipe Augusto ↑,
61', Estevao ↓, Rony ↑,
62', Flaco Lopez ↓, Romulo ↑,
82', Pitta I. ↓, Clayson ↑,
83', Mauricio ↓, Lazaro ↑,
83', Moreno A. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
84', Clayson 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won 4.

Recent matches Palmeiras is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cuiabá has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Palmeiras could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Palmeiras is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Palmeiras won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
21.08.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.24	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.08.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLTW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
10.08.24	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:3 ✺
03.08.24	Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.07.24	Cuiabá - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	0:2
19.08.23	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	0:2
15.04.23	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	2:1
06.11.22	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	1:1
18.07.22	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	1:0
30.11.21	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	1:3
22.08.21	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	0:2

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