Match Info

Serie B - Relegation Group - Round 9

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Cumbayá		Atlético Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.85	2.6
	2.47	3.12	2.87	Watch
	2.64	2.86	2.63
	2.14	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.14)	3.02 ↓ (3.25)	2.78 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cumbayá
36.7%

Draw
30.3%

Atlético Vinotinto
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

27.8%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cumbayá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cumbayá's form might have worsened.

Atlético Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cumbayá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-4%)

Cumbayá - Atlético Vinotinto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Cumbayá is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético Vinotinto has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cumbayá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cumbayá won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Cumbayá won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
15.10.25	22 de Julio - Cumbayá	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	0:0 ✺
24.09.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	0:1 ✺
16.09.25	Cumbayá - 22 de Julio	2:0 ✺
10.09.25	Imbabura - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WTWWT
- Atlético Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Serie B
16.10.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Chacaritas	4:0 ✺
12.10.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Imbabura	1:1 ✺
08.10.25	Vargas Torres - Atlético Vinotinto	0:0 ✺
24.09.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	0:1 ✺
18.09.25	Chacaritas - Atlético Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
24.09.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	0:1
17.08.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	4:0
19.03.25	Cumbayá - Atlético Vinotinto	1:0

Cumbayá - Atlético Vinotinto: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide