Match Info

Serie B - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Atlético Vinotinto		Cumbayá

	1	X	2
	2.06	3.2	3.81
	2.69	2.85	2.89	Watch
	2.04	3.18	3.41	Watch
	1.82	3.4	3.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.82)	3.16 ↓ (3.4)	3.51 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Vinotinto
43.6%

Draw
29.7%

Cumbayá
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

26.8%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

25.9%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

Cumbayá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Vinotinto will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Vinotinto will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
85', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Cumbayá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético Vinotinto is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Atlético Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Serie B
18.09.25	Chacaritas - Atlético Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
10.09.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
04.09.25	Imbabura - Atlético Vinotinto	0:3 ✺
28.08.25	22 de Julio - Atlético Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTWLW
- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
16.09.25	Cumbayá - 22 de Julio	2:0 ✺
10.09.25	Imbabura - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
02.09.25	Chacaritas - Cumbayá	4:1 ✺
26.08.25	Cumbayá - Vargas Torres	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
17.08.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	4:0
19.03.25	Cumbayá - Atlético Vinotinto	1:0

Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide