Match Info

Serie B - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo (Pelileo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Chacaritas		Atlético Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	3.53	3.63	1.9
	3.13	3.51	2.12	Watch
	3.81	3.42	1.84
	3.33	3.5	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (4.39)	3.52 ↑ (3.5)	1.94 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chacaritas
26.6%

Draw
26.1%

Atlético Vinotinto
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

26.6%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

26%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chacaritas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chacaritas's performance.

Atlético Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chacaritas than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chacaritas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Vinotinto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chacaritas - Atlético Vinotinto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Valencia K. ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Bolano J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
70', 1 - 2, Avila F. ⚽,
77', 2 - 2, Corozo R. ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Chacaritas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Vinotinto is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chacaritas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético Vinotinto could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Chacaritas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Chacaritas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chacaritas FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
10.09.25	22 de Julio - Chacaritas	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Chacaritas - Cumbayá	4:1 ✺
28.08.25	Chacaritas - Imbabura	2:3 ✺
17.08.25	Chacaritas - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.1 TWLTW
- Atlético Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Serie B
10.09.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
04.09.25	Imbabura - Atlético Vinotinto	0:3 ✺
28.08.25	22 de Julio - Atlético Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	4:0 ✺
10.08.25	9 de Octubre - Atlético Vinotinto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
10.07.25	Chacaritas - Atlético Vinotinto	1:2
30.04.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Chacaritas	4:0

Chacaritas - Atlético Vinotinto: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide