Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - Second stage - Round 23

Date: 28 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
World	Fanatiz


	Cumbayá		Emelec

	1	X	2
	4	3.25	1.91	Watch
	3.6	3.1	1.9
	3.75	3.25	1.95	Watch
	4.17	3.28	1.98
	4.15	3.18	1.96	Watch
	3.75	3.2	1.91
	4.02	3.26	1.95	Watch
	3.75	3.25	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↓ (4.65)	3.22 ↓ (3.4)	1.94 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cumbayá
23.7%

Draw
28.7%

Emelec
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

27.2%

52.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

24.5%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cumbayá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Emelec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Emelec aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Cumbayá - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Cumbayá will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Emelec will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lemos A. (G) 2. Delgado F. 14. Suarez D. 37. Estacio G. 4. Paredes J. (C) 12. Pluas W. 25. Caicedo Piyajo L. D. 8. Valencia M. 29. Rivera K. 52. Caicedo B. 7. Padilla J.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 27. Leon F. (C) 32. Bagui Tobar D. O. 15. Cortez G. 5. Erbes C. 8. Meli M. 30. Chamba T. 53. Munoz E. 28. Solis M. 19. Ruiz J.
Substitutes
18. Almagro A. 19. Diaz M. 3. Hurtado K. 15. Ontivero L. 60. Ortiz D. 27. Ortiz J. 23. San Juan F. (G)	55. Borja R. 7. Corozo W. 22. Espinoza G. (G) 51. Gonzaga J. 21. Gonzalez A. 52. Kevin Mina 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 6. Tarira S. 36. Valencia C.
Coaches
Osma Rueda A.	Alvarez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Pluas W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Valencia M. ↓, Almagro A. ↑,
57', Rivera K. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
58', Munoz E. ↓, Corozo W. ↑,
62', Caicedo R. 🟨,
72', Caicedo B. ↓, Ontivero L. ↑,
73', Chamba T. ↓, Gonzaga J. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Ontivero L. ⚽,
78', Ontivero L. 🟨,
84', Solis M. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
84', Erbes C. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
86', Suarez D. 🟨,
90+2', Padilla J. ↓, Hurtado K. ↑,
90+4', Lemos A. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 13).

Cumbayá has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Emelec is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Emelec will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cumbayá won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Cumbayá won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.24	Cumbayá - SD Aucas	0:3 ✺
15.09.24	El Nacional - Cumbayá	2:1 ✺
02.09.24	Cumbayá - Imbabura	1:2 ✺
24.08.24	Mushuc Runa - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	Cumbayá - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLTL
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.09.24	Emelec - Técnico Universitario	3:1 ✺
14.09.24	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
08.09.24	Emelec - Técnico Universitario	0:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.09.24	Emelec - Orense	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Delfín - Emelec	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.04.24	Emelec - Cumbayá	2:0
07.10.23	Emelec - Cumbayá	3:0
07.05.23	Cumbayá - Emelec	0:0
02.09.22	Emelec - Cumbayá	1:0
21.04.22	Cumbayá - Emelec	1:1

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