Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 4

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Emelec		Orense

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.08	3.05	3.5
	2.15	3.05	4.04
	2	3.29	3.86	Watch
	2	2.9	3.4
	2.06	3.32	3.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.17)	3.15 ↑ (3.13)	3.64 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
45.2%

Draw
29.4%

Orense
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.2%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	83.3%	0%

Emelec - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Orense (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Orense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 27. Leon F. (C) 2. Leguizamon A. 30. Mina A. 3. Guerrico I. 10. Pizzini F. 21. Cevallos J. 6. Griffith V. 7. Klimowicz L. 9. Neris J.	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. 6. Callegari S. 45. Quinonez O. 15. Caicedo B. 10. Burgoa V. 7. Vasquez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 13. Mena A. (C) 19. Bermudez M. 11. Herrera A.
Substitutes
17. Ayovi J. 23. Bolanos M. 18. Carabali M. 15. Fragozo L. 5. Mina A. 8. Napoli G. 16. Quintero S. 4. Segura E. 35. Tobar B. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G)	8. Armas D. 17. Caicedo E. 9. Charpentier P. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 3. Mina S. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 56. Rojas A. 77. Vinan B. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S.
Coaches
Sanchez V.	Robles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Mena A. 🟥,
6', Quinonez O. 🟨,
11', Leguizamon A. 🟨,
17', Leon F. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Quinonez O. ⚽, Burgoa V. (A),
40', 1 - 1, Caicedo R. ⚽, Guerrico I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mina A. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
46', Leguizamon A. ↓, Segura E. ↑,
56', Pizzini F. ↓, Bolanos M. ↑,
62', Bermudez M. ↓, Charpentier P. ↑,
63', Burgoa V. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
65', Cevallos J. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
67', Napoli G. 🟨,
74', Quinonez O. ↓, Mina S. ↑,
77', Guerrico I. ↓, Valencia S. ↑,
81', Jaramilo R. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
81', Herrera A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Bolanos M. ⚽, Griffith V. (A),
87', Griffith V. 🟨,
90+5', Velasco P. 🟥,
90+6', Charpentier P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 2.

Emelec may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Emelec might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 0.8:0.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.19%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Orense - the odds 3.19 are the expected chance of winning is 28.65%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Emelec - Delfín	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	5:1 ✺
15.12.25	Emelec - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
08.12.25	Emelec - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLWL
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.03.26	Orense - Manta	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Orense - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.02.26	Técnico Universitario - Orense	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Orense - LDU Quito	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Orense - Libertad Loja	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.09.25	Orense - Emelec	0:0
31.05.25	Emelec - Orense	1:0
01.09.24	Emelec - Orense	2:1
25.03.24	Orense - Emelec	1:1
13.08.23	Emelec - Orense	0:0
05.03.23	Orense - Emelec	2:1
09.10.22	Emelec - Orense	0:0

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