Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 27

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Zambrano Y. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Emelec		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.2	5.25	Watch
	1.75	3.10	4.33
	1.7	3.25	4.9	Watch
	1.76	3.46	5.31
	1.77	3.36	4.95	Watch
	1.75	3.35	5.05
	1.75	3.24	5.31	Watch
	1.7	3.2	4.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.83)	3.27 ↓ (3.28)	5.01 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
53.3%

Draw
28.2%

Leones del Norte
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

28.4%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

27.3%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Emelec - Leones del Norte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valero M. (G) 13. Gomez L. 27. Leon F. (C) 2. Leguizamon A. 3. Guerrico I. 19. Ruiz J. 5. Mina A. 32. Valverde J. 15. Fragozo L. 7. Klimowicz L. 9. Carrillo R.	45. Nazareno L. (G) 4. Arroyo R. 2. Moran J. 23. Monserrat N. 25. Kreiman B. 34. Portocarrero S. 6. Griffa E. 5. Coppo T. 29. Madero P. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)
Substitutes
11. Arce T. 17. Ayovi J. 90. Bores E. (G) 21. Cevallos J. 26. Cuero I. 6. Griffith V. 30. Mina A. 8. Napoli G. 10. Pizzini F. 16. Quintero S. 59. Saya R. 4. Segura E.	17. Amilivia T. 15. Araujo I. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 1. Congo J. (G) 16. De La Cruz M. 14. Folleco A. 7. Luque M. 31. Padilla G. 70. Pazmino D. 19. Pepinos E. 3. Vargas F.
Coaches
Nasuti C.	Cordoba M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Ruiz J. ⚽, Fragozo L. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Anangono J. ⚽, Griffa E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Klimowicz L. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
51', Leguizamon A. 🟨,
53', Guerrico I. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
63', Valero M. ↓, Bores E. ↑,
67', Portocarrero S. ↓, Luque M. ↑,
70', Coppo T. 🟨,
73', Carrillo R. ↓, Saya R. ↑,
73', Fragozo L. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
75', Coppo T. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
75', Solano C. ↓, Pepinos E. ↑,
76', Ayovi J. 🟨,
87', Griffa E. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
88', Anangono J. ↓, Cabeza J. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 1, Leguizamon A. ⚽, Napoli G. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Leones del Norte may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Emelec is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.08.26	LDU Quito - Emelec	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Emelec - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
09.08.26	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
27.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTLL
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.08.26	Leones del Norte - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Manta - Leones del Norte	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	SD Aucas - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
02.08.26	Leones del Norte - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
30.07.26	LDU Quito - Leones del Norte	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	2:0
Ecuadorian Copa
08.10.25	Leones del Norte - Emelec	0:1 penalties

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