Match Info

Serie B - Round 12

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Cumbayá		Independiente Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.98	2.52
	2.77	3.15	2.61
	2.87	2.83	2.72	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.5
	2.7	2.84	2.56
	2.75	3	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (2.79)	2.93 ↓ (3.1)	2.55 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cumbayá
33.3%

Draw
31%

Independiente Juniors
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

29.4%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cumbayá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Independiente Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Cumbayá - Independiente Juniors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cumbayá won 3.

Recent performances by Cumbayá have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Independiente Jr is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Independiente Jr may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cumbayá won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Cumbayá won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ind. Juniors	28	12	11	5	35:23	12	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
22.05.26	Deportivo Santo Domingo - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
13.05.26	Cumbayá - LDU Portoviejo	1:1 ✺
07.05.26	Cuenca Juniors - Cumbayá	0:3 ✺
29.04.26	9 de Octubre - Cumbayá	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Cumbayá - El Nacional	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TTWLW
- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
25.05.26	Independiente Juniors - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	22 de Julio - Independiente Juniors	0:1 ✺
07.05.26	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors	2:2 ✺
30.04.26	Independiente Juniors - LDU Portoviejo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
26.03.26	Independiente Juniors - Cumbayá	2:1
05.06.25	Cumbayá - Independiente Juniors	1:3
25.03.25	Independiente Juniors - Cumbayá	0:2
23.09.21	Cumbayá - Independiente Juniors	2:1
27.07.21	Independiente Juniors - Cumbayá	0:1
24.06.21	Cumbayá - Independiente Juniors	2:0
19.05.21	Independiente Juniors - Cumbayá	0:0

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