Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Vinotinto		Independiente Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.82	3.15
	2.3	2.8	3.47
	4.51	1.48	5.66	Watch
	2.25	2.75	3.2
	2.26	2.75	3.38
	1.9	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (1.9)	2.63 ↓ (3.2)	3.75 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
37.5%

Draw
36.7%

Independiente Juniors
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

28.1%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.3%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

Independiente Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 🟥,
76', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Independiente Jr may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Vinotinto is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:10. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vinotinto won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ind. Juniors	29	13	11	5	36:23	13	50
3	Vinotinto	29	13	9	7	37:22	15	48

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.04.26	El Nacional - Vinotinto	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Vinotinto - 22 de Julio	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Gualaceo - Vinotinto	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	0:1 ✺
02.04.26	Cumbayá - Vinotinto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLT
- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
30.04.26	Independiente Juniors - LDU Portoviejo	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - Independiente Juniors	1:1 ✺
16.04.26	Independiente Juniors - Deportivo Santo Domingo	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Cuenca Juniors - Independiente Juniors	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Independiente Juniors - San Antonio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
30.10.24	Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors	3:2
11.07.24	Independiente Juniors - Vinotinto	1:1
12.06.24	Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors	1:0
25.04.24	Independiente Juniors - Vinotinto	4:0
26.10.23	Independiente Juniors - Vinotinto	2:4
07.07.23	Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors	2:0
22.05.23	Independiente Juniors - Vinotinto	1:1

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