Match Info

Serie B - Round 10

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports


	22 de Julio		Independiente Juniors

	1	X	2
	3.15	2.88	2.25
	3.21	2.93	2.28
	3.24	3.03	2.32	Watch
	3	2.88	2.3
	3.2	2.85	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↓ (3.75)	2.91 ↑ (2.89)	2.29 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

22 de Julio
28.9%

Draw
31.3%

Independiente Juniors
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

32.4%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

31.3%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

22 de Julio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Independiente Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 22 de Julio than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

22 de Julio - Independiente Juniors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

22 de Julio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Independiente Jr is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Independiente Jr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Independiente Jr is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, 22 de Julio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, 22 de Julio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. Juniors	29	13	11	5	36:23	13	50

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Juniors - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.7%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 22 de Julio FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
09.05.26	El Nacional - 22 de Julio	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	22 de Julio - 9 de Octubre	0:1 ✺
29.04.26	22 de Julio - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Vinotinto - 22 de Julio	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	22 de Julio - Cumbayá	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLL
- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
07.05.26	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors	2:2 ✺
30.04.26	Independiente Juniors - LDU Portoviejo	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - Independiente Juniors	1:1 ✺
16.04.26	Independiente Juniors - Deportivo Santo Domingo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
02.07.25	Independiente Juniors - 22 de Julio	2:0
22.04.25	22 de Julio - Independiente Juniors	2:0

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