Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports


	Independiente Juniors		Gualaceo

	1	X	2
	1.92	2.92	4.05
	1.74	3.4	4.66
	1.78	3.38	4.7	Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.9
	1.89	3.05	4.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.84)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	4.28 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Juniors
49.3%

Draw
29.3%

Gualaceo
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

28.2%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

31.6%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Gualaceo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Independiente Jr will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente Jr (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Padilla J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 1, ⚽,
85', 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente Jr won 2.

Independiente Jr has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gualaceo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gualaceo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Independiente Jr is a strong favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Independiente Jr won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente Jr won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.8:1.1).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ind. Juniors	28	12	11	5	35:23	12	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
03.05.26	Vinotinto - Independiente Juniors	2:2 ✺
30.04.26	Independiente Juniors - LDU Portoviejo	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - Independiente Juniors	1:1 ✺
16.04.26	Independiente Juniors - Deportivo Santo Domingo	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Cuenca Juniors - Independiente Juniors	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWTWL
- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Serie B
02.05.26	Gualaceo - El Nacional	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	22 de Julio - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
23.04.26	Deportivo Quito - Gualaceo	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
18.04.26	Gualaceo - Vinotinto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
16.10.25	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	2:1
16.09.25	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	1:0
24.07.25	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	0:1
13.05.25	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	1:1
16.10.24	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	2:1
30.08.24	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	4:1
27.03.24	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	3:2

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