Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - Second stage - Round 29

Date: 23 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
World	Fanatiz


	Cumbayá		Orense

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.6
	2.8	2.9	2.37
	2.85	3	2.55	Watch
	2.94	3	2.67
	2.91	2.96	2.61	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.4
	2.83	3.14	2.52	Watch
	2.85	3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.23)	3.01 ↓ (3.28)	2.53 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cumbayá
32.6%

Draw
30.8%

Orense
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

28.4%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.4%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cumbayá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cumbayá - Orense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lemos A. (C) 32. Vides B. 2. Delgado F. 16. Gustavino L. 14. Suarez D. 54. Padilla J. 22. Serpa T. 18. Almagro A. 8. Valencia M. 19. Diaz M. 27. Ortiz J.	12. Silva R. (G) 15. Vinan B. 3. Quinonez O. 24. Achilier G. (C) 52. Quinonez B. 31. Velasco P. 29. Kubiszyn S. 50. Vasquez S. 10. Burbano R. 9. Coronel D. 33. Parrales M.
Substitutes
5. Altuna A. 66. Angulo D. . Caicedo B. 33. Cardenas Salazar O. B. (G) 37. Estacio G. 15. Ontivero L. 60. Ortiz D. 4. Paredes J. 29. Rivera K.	21. Andrade J. 8. Calderon R. 1. Cardenas J. (G) 5. Eggel M. 60. Erique Villigua Y. H. 45. Feijoo Fernandez J. R. 11. Herrera A. 4. Quinonez S. 20. Servetto N. 57. Suarez A.
Coaches
Chamorro Morales D. A.	Escobar Saldarriaga S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Vides B. ⚽, Valencia M. (A),
26', Quinonez B. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Vinan B. ↓, Erique Villigua Y. H. ↑,
46', Coronel D. ↓, Servetto N. ↑,
46', Padilla J. ↓, Rivera K. ↑,
50', Diaz M. 🟨,
57', Quinonez O. 🟨,
58', 2 - 0, Vides B. ⚽, Ortiz J. (A),
60', 2 - 1, Herrera A. ⚽,
67', 2 - 2, Parrales M. ⚽,
68', Ortiz J. ↓, Altuna A. ↑,
74', Altuna A. 🟨,
77', Vasquez S. ↓, Eggel M. ↑,
77', Serpa T. ↓, Paredes J. ↑,
78', Delgado F. ↓, Ontivero L. ↑,
82', Kubiszyn S. 🟨,
87', Parrales M. ↓, Suarez A. ↑,
88', Rivera K. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
90+7', Velasco P. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cumbayá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Cumbayá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.11.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Cumbayá	8:1 ✺
02.11.24	Cumbayá - Deportivo Cuenca	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	Deportivo Macará - Cumbayá	1:1 ✺
18.10.24	Cumbayá - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
04.10.24	Libertad Loja - Cumbayá	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LWTTL
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.11.24	Orense - Técnico Universitario	0:2 ✺
01.11.24	Orense - Delfín	0:0 ✺
27.10.24	El Nacional - Orense	0:1 ✺
18.10.24	Orense - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
06.10.24	LDU Quito - Orense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.05.24	Orense - Cumbayá	1:0
05.11.23	Cumbayá - Orense	0:1
27.05.23	Orense - Cumbayá	1:0
23.07.22	Orense - Cumbayá	3:1
06.03.22	Cumbayá - Orense	1:1

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