Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - Second stage - Round 24

Date: 4 October 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
World	Fanatiz


	Libertad Loja		Cumbayá

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	6.25	Watch
	1.55	3.5	5.25
	1.6	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.54	3.7	5.5
	1.6	3.67	6.02	Watch
	1.53	3.6	5.8
	1.57	3.75	6.05	Watch
	1.55	3.6	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.82)	3.63 ↑ (3.34)	5.78 ↑ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
58.8%

Draw
25.3%

Cumbayá
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

28%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

28.8%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Libertad Loja's performance.

Cumbayá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Loja that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Libertad Loja - Cumbayá Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Bores E. (G) 66. Gomez L. 6. Caicedo B. 37. Medina C. 31. Mina G. 26. Molina N. (C) 7. Zambrano I. 13. Angulo L. 10. Penilla C. 9. Avila D. 50. Caicedo D.	1. Lemos A. (G) 2. Delgado F. 12. Pluas W. 14. Suarez D. 37. Estacio G. 16. Gustavino L. 4. Paredes J. (C) 8. Valencia M. 29. Rivera K. 19. Diaz M. 7. Padilla J.
Substitutes
11. Almeida Marquez J. J. 23. Angulo Avila E. A. 8. Avila F. 54. Bardales W. 16. Caicedo J. 22. Donsanti T. 29. Hinostroza W. (G) 5. Larrea P. 4. Obando C. 20. Rosero A.	18. Almagro A. 5. Altuna A. 54. Caicedo B. 25. Caicedo Piyajo L. D. 33. Cardenas Salazar O. B. (G) 15. Ontivero L. 27. Ortiz J.
Coaches
Cumbicus G.	Garcia L. J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Paredes J. (Pen),
25', 1 - 1, Avila D. ⚽, Penilla C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gomez L. ↓, Bardales W. ↑,
53', Caicedo B. 🟨,
56', Diaz M. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
56', Valencia M. ↓, Almagro A. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Penilla C. (Pen),
69', Penilla C. 🟨,
76', Avila D. ↓, Avila F. ↑,
78', Padilla J. ↓, Ontivero L. ↑,
84', Angulo L. ↓, Angulo Avila E. A. ↑,
87', Rivera K. ↓, Caicedo Piyajo L. D. ↑,
87', Gustavino L. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
88', Zambrano I. ↓, Obando C. ↑,
89', Avila F. 🟨,
90+5', Molina N. 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 15).

Recent matches Libertad is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cumbayá is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Libertad have a series of guest games.

In this match Libertad is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.09.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
26.09.24	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.24	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
16.09.24	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
04.09.24	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.3 TLTLW
- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.09.24	Cumbayá - Emelec	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Cumbayá - SD Aucas	0:3 ✺
15.09.24	El Nacional - Cumbayá	2:1 ✺
02.09.24	Cumbayá - Imbabura	1:2 ✺
24.08.24	Mushuc Runa - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.04.24	Cumbayá - Libertad Loja	0:0
02.12.23	Libertad Loja - Cumbayá	3:1
17.06.23	Cumbayá - Libertad Loja	2:1

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