Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 16

Date: 1 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	LDU Quito		Orense

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.8	6	Watch
	1.44	4.00	5.75
	1.49	4.05	5.9	Watch
	1.54	4.1	6.88
	1.48	4.47	6.07	Watch
	1.51	3.8	6.8
	1.57	3.84	5.84	Watch
	1.49	3.95	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.68)	4 ↑ (3.8)	6.13 ↑ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
61.7%

Draw
23.2%

Orense
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

24.6%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

23.3%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in LDU Quito's performance.

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

LDU Quito - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. LDU Quito will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Orense will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. LDU Quito (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Dominguez A. (C) 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 44. Segovia L. 33. Quinonez L. 23. Quinonez Y. 7. Redes R. 20. Cornejo F. 8. Pretell J. 99. Luna Tobar C. 16. Deyverson	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 3. Mina S. 45. Quinonez O. 5. Lorenzo A. 21. Rostagno G. 7. Vasquez S. 13. Mena A. 8. Armas D. 15. Caicedo B. 11. Herrera A.
Substitutes
4. Ade R. 10. Alvarado A. 24. Calle J. 21. Castillo E. 13. Corozo J. 11. Estrada M. 32. Gomez A. 9. Medina J. 27. Mina R. 12. Villa A. (G) 15. Villamil G. 26. Zambrano I.	19. Bermudez M. 6. Callegari S. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 25. Jaramilo R. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 59. Vera J. 77. Vinan B. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S.
Coaches
Tiago Nunes	Torres H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Quinonez O. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Mina S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, Redes R. ⚽, Luna Tobar C. (A),
56', Armas D. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
56', Quinonez O. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
59', Quinonez Y. 🟨,
66', Luna Tobar C. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
66', Redes R. ↓, Corozo J. ↑,
66', Deyverson ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
72', Rostagno G. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
72', Vasquez S. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Quinonez Y. ⚽, Segovia L. (A),
77', Pretell J. 🟨,
79', Cornejo F. ↓, Villamil G. ↑,
84', Cuero Mercado J. W. ↓, Ade R. ↑,
85', Mena A. ↓, Jaramilo R. ↑,
88', Allala Menendez G. F. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 3.

LDU Quito is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Orense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

LDU Quito may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, LDU Quito is the obvious favorite.

We predict that LDU Quito will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, LDU Quito won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:3. (average 2.6:0.4).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	LDU Quito	31	14	7	10	33:25	8	49

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	LDU Quito - Always Ready	3:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Deportivo Cuenca - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	LDU Quito - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.05.26	LDU Quito - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
11.05.26	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTWWW
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Copa
27.05.26	Vinotinto - Orense	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
18.05.26	Guayaquil City - Orense	0:1 ✺
08.05.26	Orense - Leones del Norte	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Orense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.02.26	Orense - LDU Quito	1:2
06.12.25	Orense - LDU Quito	2:1
04.11.25	LDU Quito - Orense	4:0
28.06.25	Orense - LDU Quito	2:1
01.03.25	LDU Quito - Orense	4:0
06.10.24	LDU Quito - Orense	2:0
19.04.24	Orense - LDU Quito	1:0

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