Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 6

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		Orense

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.6	4.5
	1.93	3.1	3.5
	1.77	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.32	5.05	Watch
	2	3.1	3.7
	1.74	3.63	4.54	Watch
	1.77	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.99)	3.36 ↑ (3.35)	4.33 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
51%

Draw
27.5%

Orense
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

27.7%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.2%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	13.3%	20%

El Nacional - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Orense will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 25. Montano M. 30. Carabali F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 77. Hernandez B. 19. Mejia E. 15. Cela A. 29. Cevallos J. 24. Mora F. 99. Reasco D. 59. Borja F.	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. 4. Quinonez S. (C) 24. Achilier G. 15. Caicedo B. 77. Vinan B. 13. Mena A. 16. Valverde J. 26. Molina N. 11. Herrera A. 10. Parrales M.
Substitutes
11. Branda V. 13. Caicedo E. 16. Cifuentes J. 33. Congo J. (G) 66. Estupinan W. 21. Ledesma A. 55. Mejia J. 26. Mena A. 6. Olmedo M. 5. Rivera B. 17. Velez C.	8. Armas D. 9. Coronel D. 53. Guerrero Meza J. A. 18. Mejia M. 23. Meneses Garcia R. R. 29. Olinick A. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 27. Ospina N. 2. Quinonez B. 21. Suarez A. 50. Vasquez S.
Coaches
Asad O. A.	Arguello F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Parrales M. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Borja F. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
46', Mora F. ↓, Olmedo M. ↑,
46', Montano M. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
46', Herrera A. ↓, Olinick A. ↑,
60', Velasco P. ↓, Quinonez B. ↑,
61', Molina N. ↓, Vasquez S. ↑,
62', Vinan B. 🟨,
64', Hernandez B. ↓, Mejia J. ↑,
65', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟨,
75', Reasco D. 🟥,
79', Cevallos J. ↓, Ledesma A. ↑,
79', Vinan B. ↓, Meneses Garcia R. R. ↑,
80', Olmedo M. 🟨,
87', Carabali F. 🟨,
90+3', Valverde J. 🟥,
90+4', Mejia J. 🟨,
90+7', Mena A. ↓, Guerrero Meza J. A. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 2.

El Nacional is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Orense is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

El Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

El Nacional will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams El Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.03.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Manta - El Nacional	4:3 ✺
02.03.25	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.02.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLTTT
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.03.25	Libertad Loja - Orense	4:1 ✺
10.03.25	Orense - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.25	LDU Quito - Orense	4:0 ✺
23.02.25	Orense - Manta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.10.24	El Nacional - Orense	0:1
03.05.24	Orense - El Nacional	0:1
20.10.23	Orense - El Nacional	1:1
13.05.23	El Nacional - Orense	3:1
20.12.20	Orense - El Nacional	1:0
25.09.20	El Nacional - Orense	2:2
Ecuadorian Copa
24.07.19	El Nacional - Orense	0:0

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