Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 23

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja (Curicó)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	TNT Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Curicó Unido		Deportes Recoleta

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.20	2.90
	2.2	3.25	2.95
	2.2	3.48	3.01
	2.24	3.6	2.89	Watch
	2.15	3.4	2.7
	2.22	3.32	2.88
	2.17	3.2	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.12)	3.35 ↑ (3.1)	2.88 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Curicó Unido
41.4%

Draw
27.1%

Deportes Recoleta
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.7%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

29.6%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Curicó Unido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Deportes Recoleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Curicó Unido than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Recoleta than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Curicó Unido - Deportes Recoleta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tello D. (C) 14. Medina C. 3. Sarria G. 15. Sanhueza H. 4. Colombo R. 37. Guzman R. 21. Ormeno E. 10. Retamales J. 17. Inostroza B. 27. Alfaro J. 11. Aliaga I.	23. Salazar A. (G) 16. Viveros B. 28. Rodriguez C. 14. Lara I. 5. Alarcon F. 6. Espinoza J. 7. Provoste B. 21. Alvarez G. 20. Gonzalez C. 9. Estigarribia G. (C) 19. Sanchez P.
Substitutes
6. Acevedo D. 13. Bustamante C. 19. de La Fuente R. 7. Fernandez N. 23. Lopez L. 5. Veglio B. 1. Vergara T. (G)	10. Arguinarena M. 17. Carvajal N. 27. Flores F. 8. Martin F. 13. Narr J. (G) 33. Riveros R. 4. Tomarelli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Espinoza J. 🟨,
15', Espinoza J. 🟥,
27', Alvarez G. ↓, Carvajal N. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Alfaro J. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
56', Retamales J. ↓, Bustamante C. ↑,
74', Sarria G. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
74', Inostroza B. ↓, de La Fuente R. ↑,
81', Sanchez P. ↓, Martin F. ↑,
81', Estigarribia G. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
86', Sanhueza H. ↓, Veglio B. ↑,
90+1', Provoste B. ↓, Tomarelli F. ↑,
90+1', Gonzalez C. ↓, Arguinarena M. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 9).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recoleta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Curicó Unido won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Curicó Unido won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Recoleta	26	11	8	7	38:34	4	41
13	Curico Unido	26	6	9	11	22:39	-17	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Curicó Unido
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
23.08.26	Curicó Unido - Unión San Felipe	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Deportes Copiapó - Curicó Unido	4:0 ✺
13.08.26	Curicó Unido - Deportes Santa Cruz	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Rangers de Talca - Curicó Unido	0:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
04.08.26	Universidad de Concepción - Curicó Unido	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLTW
- Deportes Recoleta
Chilean Cup
26.08.26	Deportes Recoleta - OHiggins	1:3 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
22.08.26	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Copiapó	2:1 ✺
17.08.26	Deportes Temuco - Deportes Recoleta	1:1 ✺
12.08.26	Deportes Recoleta - Rangers de Talca	4:2 ✺
08.08.26	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Recoleta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
18.04.26	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	2:2
25.10.25	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	1:1
14.06.25	Curicó Unido - Deportes Recoleta	1:1
05.08.24	Curicó Unido - Deportes Recoleta	1:0
23.03.24	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	2:1

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