Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 18

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja (Curicó)


	Curicó Unido		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.25
	2.02	3.55	3.15
	1.81	3.63	4.13
	1.99	3.64	3.43	Watch
	2	3.2	3.4
	1.89	3.66	3.56
	1.85	3.4	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.87)	3.48 ↑ (3.38)	3.6 ↓ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Curicó Unido
47.9%

Draw
26.5%

Santiago Morning
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

27.3%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

26.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Curicó Unido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Santiago Morning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Curicó Unido than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Curicó Unido - Santiago Morning Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Curicó Unido will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Santiago Morning will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Curicó Unido (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Santiago Morning (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vergara T. (G) 6. Oliver F. 14. Gonzalez J. 15. Sanhueza H. 19. de La Fuente R. 4. Guisolfo B. 20. Herrera C. 32. Ibarra H. 7. Fernandez N. 13. Bustamante C. 29. Quinteros M.	12. Canete L. (G) 5. Gatica M. 14. Vasquez K. 23. Delgado M. 25. Estay D. 4. Iturra M. 6. Asprea T. 15. Cortes F. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. 10. Campillay K. 30. Barrientos J.
Substitutes
9. Aliaga I. 23. Barrios N. 25. Munoz H. (G) 21. Ormazabal M. 18. Ortiz F. 24. Saez W.	28. Alvarez D. 1. Arana A. (G) 17. Castro P. 9. Cid W. 27. Coronado M. 20. Ormeno E. 8. Salazar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Estay D. 🟨,
40', Bustamante C. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Ormeno E. ⚽,
45+4', Oliver F. 🟨,
45+4', Ceron D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ibarra H. ↓, Ortiz F. ↑,
54', Oliver F. 🟨,
54', Oliver F. 🟥,
58', Bustamante C. ↓, Aliaga I. ↑,
59', Delgado M. 🟨,
62', Aliaga I. 🟥,
65', Estay D. ↓, Gatica M. ↑,
73', Arancibia M. ↓, Salazar S. ↑,
78', Arias D. 🟥,
82', Asprea T. ↓, Castro P. ↑,
86', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
87', Gonzalez J. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
90', Salazar S. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Curicó Unido won 3.

Recent form of Curicó Unido has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santiago Morning is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Santiago Morning may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Curicó Unido could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Curicó Unido won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:11. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Curicó Unido won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Curicó Unido
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.07.25	Deportes Copiapó - Curicó Unido	1:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
16.07.25	Audax Italiano - Curicó Unido	1:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
12.07.25	Curicó Unido - San Marcos de Arica	5:3 ✺
Chilean Cup
09.07.25	Curicó Unido - Audax Italiano	0:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
05.07.25	Santiago Wanderers - Curicó Unido	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLWLL
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.07.25	Deportes Temuco - Santiago Morning	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
09.03.25	Santiago Morning - Curicó Unido	0:0
13.10.24	Santiago Morning - Curicó Unido	0:1
26.05.24	Curicó Unido - Santiago Morning	2:1
18.03.17	Curicó Unido - Santiago Morning	1:0
28.08.16	Santiago Morning - Curicó Unido	0:0
22.02.16	Santiago Morning - Curicó Unido	2:3
13.09.15	Curicó Unido - Santiago Morning	2:2

Upcoming Matches