Match Info

National League North - Round 4

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Tameside Stadium (Ashton-under-Lyne)


	Curzon Ashton		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	4.2
	1.82	3.3	3.7
	1.88	3.45	3.75
	1.75	3.71	4.42
	2.87	3.58	2.24	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.75
	1.87	3.45	3.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.1)	3.47 ↑ (3.4)	3.71 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Curzon Ashton
47.6%

Draw
27.1%

Merthyr Town
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.4%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

26.7%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Curzon Ashton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Curzon Ashton than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Curzon Ashton - Merthyr Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merthyr (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
40', 0 - 2, Evans K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 3, Rees R. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Curzon Ashton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Curzon Ashton - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 42.7%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 30.92%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Curzon Ashton
English National League North
19.08.25	Chester - Curzon Ashton	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	AFC Telford United - Curzon Ashton	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Curzon Ashton - Leamington	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Curzon Ashton - Halifax Town	0:2 ✺
22.07.25	Hyde United - Curzon Ashton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTTLW
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
19.08.25	Merthyr Town - Marine	1:3 ✺
16.08.25	Peterborough Sports - Merthyr Town	0:3 ✺
09.08.25	Merthyr Town - Southport	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Merthyr Town - Cardiff City U21	4:6 ✺
18.07.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWLW

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