Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Deva Stadium (Chester)


	Chester		Curzon Ashton

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.4
	1.92	3.7	3.3
	1.94	3.9	3.2
	1.95	3.51	3.60	Watch
	1.98	3.54	3.54	Watch
	1.81	3.66	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.8)	3.62 ↑ (3.5)	3.47 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chester
48%

Draw
25.4%

Curzon Ashton
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

25.5%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

25.1%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Curzon Ashton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Curzon Ashton than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Chester - Curzon Ashton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Zanzala O. ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, Stobbs J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
65', 3 - 0, Mottley-Henry D. ⚽,
75', 4 - 0, Jones P. ⚽,
86', 5 - 0, Woods C. ⚽,
88', 5 - 1, Spencer J. ⚽,

Preview

Replayed if draw.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chester won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Chester has had a series of away games.

Recently, Curzon Ashton has had a series of home games.

Chester is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Chester won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Chester won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chester City
English National League North
20.09.25	Darlington - Chester	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Stalybridge Celtic - Chester	1:2 ✺
English National League North
06.09.25	Chester - Scarborough Athletic	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Fylde - Chester	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Worksop Town - Chester	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWTTL
- Curzon Ashton
English National League North
20.09.25	Curzon Ashton - South Shields	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Curzon Ashton - Hebburn Town	4:1 ✺
English National League North
06.09.25	Bedford Town - Curzon Ashton	2:2 ✺
02.09.25	Curzon Ashton - Chorley	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Curzon Ashton - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
19.08.25	Chester - Curzon Ashton	1:1
29.03.25	Chester - Curzon Ashton	1:1
26.10.24	Curzon Ashton - Chester	4:0
09.03.24	Chester - Curzon Ashton	0:0
28.10.23	Curzon Ashton - Chester	0:1
14.01.23	Chester - Curzon Ashton	2:2
29.08.22	Curzon Ashton - Chester	1:2

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