Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - APERTURA - ROUND 9

Date: 29 March 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)


	Cusco		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	1.29	5	13	Watch
	1.25	5	9.5
	1.26	5.35	12.5	Watch
	1.26	5.39	11.42
	1.27	5.39	11.42
	1.33	4.4	8
	1.26	5.44	10.9	Watch
	1.27	5.2	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.48)	5.15 ↑ (4.18)	10.84 ↑ (6.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cusco
73.3%

Draw
18.1%

Unión Comercio
8.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

22.4%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

21.7%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cusco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cusco's performance.

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Comercio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cusco than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cusco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Comercio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Cusco - Unión Comercio Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cusco will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Solis C. (G) 23. Ramirez R. 2. Bilbao J. 6. Perez A. 14. Zevallos J. 16. Valenzuela O. 10. Colman I. 26. Silva N. 20. Vasquez A. 18. Nunez J. 11. Tevez J.	1. Barrios I. (G) 5. Sanchez K. 3. Paredes T. 20. Ramirez C. 27. Trujillo L. 17. Vargas D. 19. Uribe C. 15. Jimenez O. 30. Torres J. 14. Regalado I. 29. Zeta H.
Substitutes
1. Anderson R. (G) 5. Aucca M. 17. Cardenas P. 27. Fernandez R. 7. Morales J. 9. Ramos L. 3. Schmidt F. 19. Tamariz A. 15. Zarabia S.	23. Alvarez J. 13. Angulo Grueso B. A. 18. Carhualllanqui J. 12. Diaz W. (G) 11. Guerrero G. 24. Javier Navea 2. Salas J.
Coaches
Rondelli M.	Craviotto N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Perez A. 🟨,
39', Sanchez K. 🟨,
45+6', Ramirez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jimenez O. ↓, Angulo Grueso B. A. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Colman I. ⚽, Silva N. (A),
64', Sanchez K. ↓, Carhualllanqui J. ↑,
65', Nunez J. ↓, Aucca M. ↑,
70', Vargas D. 🟨,
77', Colman I. ↓, Fernandez R. ↑,
77', Tevez J. ↓, Ramos L. ↑,
90+6', Fernandez R. 🟨,
90+7', Zevallos J. ↓, Schmidt F. ↑,
90+7', Vasquez A. ↓, Morales J. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cusco won 3.

Recent matches Cusco is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Unión Comercio is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Unión Comercio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cusco is certain favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Cusco won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 32-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Cusco won 9 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cusco FC
Peruvian Liga 1
12.03.24	Universitario de Deportes - Cusco	1:0 ✺
07.03.24	Cusco - Alianza Atlético	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Cusco	2:2 ✺
24.02.24	Sport Boys - Cusco	3:0 ✺
17.02.24	Cusco - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWTLW
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
15.03.24	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:4 ✺
10.03.24	Sport Huancayo - Unión Comercio	2:2 ✺
04.03.24	Unión Comercio - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
24.02.24	FBC Melgar - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Unión Comercio - Alianza Lima	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
04.08.23	Unión Comercio - Cusco	2:1
06.03.23	Cusco - Unión Comercio	2:1
Peruvian Liga 2
03.07.22	Cusco - Unión Comercio	4:1
03.04.22	Unión Comercio - Cusco	1:0
Peruvian Liga 1
18.11.19	Cusco - Unión Comercio	4:0
02.06.19	Unión Comercio - Cusco	0:1
20.10.18	Cusco - Unión Comercio	1:0

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