Match Info

Cymru South - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Cwmbran Celtic		Trethomas Bluebirds

	1	X	2
	3.35	3.8	1.82
	3.85	4.16	1.9
	10.93	5.24	1.26	Watch
	3.45	4.29	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.4 ↑ (2.46)	4.37 ↑ (3.85)	1.7 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cwmbran Celtic
18.5%

Draw
22.8%

Trethomas Bluebirds
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

23.4%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

23.1%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cwmbran Celtic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cwmbran Celtic's form might have worsened.

Trethomas Bluebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trethomas Bluebirds's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cwmbran Celtic than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cwmbran Celtic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trethomas Bluebirds than the current prediction. (-18.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trethomas Bluebirds, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cwmbran Celtic - Trethomas Bluebirds Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Williams J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 1 - 1, Gibson J. ⚽,
65', 1 - 2, Samson H. ⚽,
86', 2 - 2, Larcombe A. (Pen),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Cwmbran Celtic is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Trethomas Bluebirds has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Trethomas Bluebirds has had a series of home games.

Trethomas Bluebirds might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cwmbran Celtic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 2:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cwmbran Celtic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 3:4.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cwmbran Celtic
Welsh Cymru South
13.09.25	Aberystwyth Town - Cwmbran Celtic	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Treowen Stars - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Trefelin - Cwmbran Celtic	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Afan Lido	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTTLL
- Trethomas Bluebirds
Welsh Cymru South
13.09.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Ynyshir Albions	4:1 ✺
06.09.25	Llantwit Major - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Treowen Stars	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Afan Lido	3:2 ✺
15.08.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cambrian United	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
07.03.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cwmbran Celtic	1:0
30.11.24	Cwmbran Celtic - Trethomas Bluebirds	4:6
Welsh League Cup
20.07.24	Cwmbran Celtic - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:3

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