Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	Cúcuta Deportivo		Deportivo Cali

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.63	2.25	Watch
	3.35	2.98	2.28
	3.5	3.06	2.32
	3.26	3.18	2.26	Watch
	3.1	3	2.25
	3.71	2.71	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.18)	2.93 ↓ (3.12)	2.28 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cúcuta Deportivo
27.3%

Draw
31.9%

Deportivo Cali
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

29.9%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

29.3%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cúcuta Deportivo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Deportivo Cali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cúcuta Deportivo than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Cali than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	88.2%	5.9%

Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Cali Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Cúcuta will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Deportivo Cali will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 88.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 72.9% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Abadia F. (G) 26. Abonia Y. 3. Calcaterra D. 4. Quinones J. 27. Duarte Barajas E. M. (C) 5. Mejia V. 7. Berdugo L. 16. Londono K. 19. Valencia J. 90. Hernandez L. 11. Arizalas E.	1. Gallese P. (G) 27. Viafara F. 12. Caldera Alvis J. C. 4. Alvarez F. 21. Quinones J. 3. Correa A. 6. Pajaro R. 25. Colorado A. 18. Hurtado A. (C) 19. Martinez J. 9. Dinenno J.
Substitutes
32. Agudelo J. 77. Beltran H. 70. Cano A. 23. Castaneda F. 30. Montano B. 17. Ochoa L. 6. Orozco S. 1. Ramirez J. (G) 10. Rios L.	5. Cuellar G. 33. Galindo J. 8. Giraldo D. 28. Luis Orejuela 77. Montoya J. 39. Orozco M. 38. Rodriguez A. (G) 16. Sandoval K. 26. Tello J.
Coaches
Paez R.	Dudamel R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Colorado A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Colorado A. ↓, Orozco M. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Hurtado A. ⚽, Dinenno J. (A),
65', Berdugo L. ↓, Rios L. ↑,
68', Duarte Barajas E. M. 🟨,
68', Caldera Alvis J. C. 🟨,
71', Valencia J. ↓, Castaneda F. ↑,
74', Viafara F. 🟨,
78', Dinenno J. ↓, Cuellar G. ↑,
78', Viafara F. ↓, Luis Orejuela ↑,
78', Alvarez F. ↓, Tello J. ↑,
79', 0 - 2, Hurtado A. ⚽, Caldera Alvis J. C. (A),
80', Arizalas E. ↓, Cano A. ↑,
80', Mejia V. ↓, Agudelo J. ↑,
85', Rios L. 🟥,
89', Hurtado A. ↓, Montoya J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cúcuta won 0.

Cúcuta is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Deportivo Cali has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Deportivo Cali may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Cúcuta won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:26. (average 1.1:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Cúcuta won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.7:2.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Dep. Cali	13	7	4	2	20:9	11	25
11	Cucuta	12	4	3	5	15:19	-4	15

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Cali - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.71%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cúcuta Deportivo
Colombian Primera A
09.03.26	Millonarios - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:2 ✺
23.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	3:2 ✺
17.02.26	Alianza Valledupar - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Independiente Medellín	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWTL
- Deportivo Cali
Colombian Primera A
06.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Cali	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
11.02.26	Inter Bogotá - Deportivo Cali	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
22.09.20	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Cali	3:3
22.09.19	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Cali	1:4
31.03.19	Deportivo Cali - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:0
Colombian Copa
26.07.17	Deportivo Cali - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:1
05.07.17	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Cali	3:3
Colombian Primera A
23.08.15	Deportivo Cali - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:0
08.03.15	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Cali	2:4

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