Match Info

ARGENTINA: LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 14

Date: 30 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Echenique F. (Arg)


	Defensa y Justicia		Colón

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.25
	2.2	3.25	3.2
	2.25	3.2	3.4
	2.28	3.32	3.41
	2.18	3.44	3.25	Watch
	2.27	3.3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.01)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	3.27 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
42.5%

Draw
28.5%

Colón
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

29%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

30%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Colón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensa y Justicia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colón than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Colón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Defensa y Justicia - Colón Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Defensa y Justicia: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Defensa y Justicia has the most likely position - 2 (12.78%), project points - 44, currently - 24, a very small chance of win league (2%).

Colón has the most likely position - 20 (5.9%), project points - 33, currently - 14, a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 41, very small importance 6, small match rating 23. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Defensa y Justicia won 1.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Defensa y Justicia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Defensa y Justicia will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Defensa y Justicia: Tripichio N. (Injury)

There will not play in Colón: Farias F. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Defensa y Justicia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Defensa y Justicia won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.23	Barracas Central - Defensa y Justicia	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - Instituto Córdoba	1:0 ✺
11.04.23	Banfield - Defensa y Justicia	0:3 ✺
08.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - Central Córdoba	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWL
- CA Colón
Copa Argentina
26.04.23	Colón - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.04.23	Colón - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
17.04.23	Platense - Colón	0:0 ✺
13.04.23	Colón - Talleres de Córdoba	2:2 ✺
09.04.23	Boca Juniors - Colón	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.10.22	Colón - Defensa y Justicia	1:2
28.11.21	Defensa y Justicia - Colón	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.11.20	Colón - Defensa y Justicia	2:0
01.11.20	Defensa y Justicia - Colón	0:3
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.02.20	Defensa y Justicia - Colón	0:0
08.12.18	Defensa y Justicia - Colón	3:0
24.09.17	Colón - Defensa y Justicia	3:1

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