Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Round 3

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus


	Defensor Sporting		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.20
	1.79	3.22	4.73
	1.73	3.45	4.58	Watch
	1.76	3.15	4.45
	1.74	3.65	4.52	Watch
	1.73	3.25	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.72)	3.33 ↓ (3.6)	4.45 ↑ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
52.1%

Draw
27.4%

Plaza Colonia
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

25.5%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

27.6%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensor Sporting, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Users Predictions: Defensor Sporting will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Vergara H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Plaza Colonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Defensor Sporting for this game.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting has recorded 11 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:18 (averaging 1.5:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Defensor Sporting against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 16:10 goals (averaging 1.8:1.1 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Defensor Sporting - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.36%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Central Español - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWTT
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Plaza Colonia	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Plaza Colonia - Paysandú	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Rentistas - Plaza Colonia	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
12.09.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Plaza Colonia - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.25	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	1:0
28.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	1:1
23.02.25	Plaza Colonia - Defensor Sporting	1:2
Uruguay Copa
28.02.24	Plaza Colonia - Defensor Sporting	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.11.23	Plaza Colonia - Defensor Sporting	0:2
24.03.23	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	4:0
28.08.22	Plaza Colonia - Defensor Sporting	0:1

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