The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nacional Montevideo 52.9%
Draw 26.8%
Defensor Sporting 20.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
57.4%
24.4%
18.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58.5%
23.9%
18%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (C) 37. Rodriguez L. 5. Calvo F. 32. Viera T. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 23. Rodriguez L. 6. Boggio L. 21. Candido C. 20. Botta R. 29. Correa T. 11. Silvera M.
12. Dawson K. (G) 4. Rodriguez G. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 2. Elizalde E. 15. Frugone A. 24. de los Santos L. 5. Barrios G. 11. Agazzi L. 8. Wunsch N. 22. Torterolo A. 26. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
10. Dos Santos A. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 9. Gomez M. 39. Gonzalez L. 22. Martin A. (G) 14. Martinez A. 31. Martinez R. 7. Rodriguez N. 8. Silva S. 36. Zuculini B.
25. Abella D. 10. Biscayzacu X. 20. Caballero M. 30. Cuello E. 19. Diaz J. 1. Machado L. (G) 7. Medina N. 29. Pozzo T. A. 55. Rabunal M. 21. Scotti N.
Coaches
Carreno D.
Larriera M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Barrios G. ⚽,
33', Frugone A. 🟨,
35', Calvo F. 🟨,
37', Botta R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', Silvera M. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
57', Candido C. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
57', Botta R. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
61', Frugone A. ↓, Medina N. ↑,
61', Torterolo A. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
63', De los Santos G. 🟨,
68', Barrios G. ↓, Rabunal M. ↑,
72', 0 - 2, Medina N. ⚽,
74', Boggio L. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
79', Rodriguez G. ↓, Caballero M. ↑,
79', Agazzi L. ↓, Scotti N. ↑,
84', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Gomez M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+2', 2 - 2, Gomez M. ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 2, Calvo F. ⚽,
90+6', Frugone A. 🟥,
90+6', Correa T. ↓, Silva S. ↑,
90+7', Gomez M. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
Nacional is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Performances by Defensor Sporting have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Recently, Nacional has faced a series of away games on the road.
Bookmakers give the edge to Nacional for this game.
Our forecast points to a victory for Nacional in today's match, at odds of 1.63.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Nacional has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 35:26 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:8 goals (averaging 1.7:0.8 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
Nacional
9
5
2
2
13:9
4
17
Last Results with these Odds
Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.38%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
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Mejia L. (C) 
Rodriguez L. 
Calvo F. 
Botta R. 
Montenegro B. 
Biscayzacu X. 
