The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Defensores de Belgrano 33.7%
Draw 35.8%
Ferro Carril Oeste 30.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
25.8%
32.7%
41.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
25.1%
31.8%
42.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensores de Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Defensores de Belgrano's performance.
Ferro Carril Oeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferro Carril Oeste might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (-8.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensores de Belgrano that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (+12.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferro Carril Oeste could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Defensores de Belgrano - Ferro Carril Oeste Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Medina A. (G) 4. Gomez B. 2. Gamarra G. 6. Jerez Silva L. 3. Perez I. 10. Benitez A. 5. De Tomasso J. 8. Gutierrez I. 11. Moyano P. 7. Aguirre E. (C) 9. Gonzalez E.
1. Monetti F. (G) 4. Nazareno K. 2. Orellana J. 6. Canto G. 3. Ozuna E. 7. Gonzalez A. 5. Obradovich F. 8. Kabalin M. 11. Dening E. 10. Hoyos E. 9. Parisi L.
Substitutes
20. Ardaiz J. 15. Borsotti N. 16. Ciccolini L. 12. Daus L. (G) 18. Garcia D. 13. Gigli L. 17. Landriel L. 14. Rodriguez M. 19. Tcherkaski F.
16. Castellani G. 14. Corda S. 17. Garcia S. 18. Marra L. 19. Menendez J. 15. Olguin G. 20. Reniero N. 12. Ruiz L. (G) 13. Taron M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Dening E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Parisi L. ↓, Marra L. ↑,
46', Benitez A. ↓, Ciccolini L. ↑,
69', Hoyos E. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
77', Gonzalez A. ↓, Corda S. ↑,
78', Gomez B. ↓, Landriel L. ↑,
78', Perez I. ↓, Ardaiz J. ↑,
80', Monetti F. 🟨,
89', Ozuna E. ↓, Taron M. ↑,
89', Dening E. ↓, Olguin G. ↑,
90', Marra L. 🟨,
90+2', Gutierrez I. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
90+2', Moyano P. ↓, Tcherkaski F. ↑,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 11th and 1st in the Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Super final: )).
Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.
Ferro Carril could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Defensores has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:7 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Defensores against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 4:4 goals (averaging 1.3:1.3 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Defensores de Belgrano - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 25.76%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Medina A. (G) 
Ardaiz J. 
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