Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 19

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Dender Football Complex (Denderleeuw)

Referee: Laforge N. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza


	Dender EH		Standard Liège

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.3	3.05	3.35	Watch
	2.46	3.25	3.16
	2.33	3.12	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.29	3.3	3.46	Watch
	2.28	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.55)	3.12 ↓ (3.2)	3.32 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dender EH
41.3%

Draw
30.3%

Standard Liège
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.4%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29.5%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dender EH has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Standard Liège has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Standard Liège might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Standard Liège than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Standard Liège could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Dender EH - Standard Liège Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Dender EH will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Standard will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Standard (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Dender EH (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Dender EH (votes: 1 - 50%). Standard (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Dietsch G. (G) 70. Sambu M. 5. Marijnissen L. 21. Cools K. (C) 7. Goncalves B. 88. Ferraro F. 27. Jahanbakhsh A. 17. Mbamba N. 24. Viltard M. 90. Berte M. 77. Nsimba B.	21. Pirard L. (G) 29. Dierckx D. 20. Karamoko I. 25. Hautekiet I. 18. Lawrence H. 23. Ilaimaharitra M. 8. Mehssatou Sepulveda N. 7. Mohr T. 94. Nielsen C. (C) 59. Nkada T. 10. Eckert Ayensa D.
Substitutes
44. De Fougerolles L. 1. Fortin L. (G) 20. Hrncar D. 19. Kadiri J. A. 15. Koton K. 16. Kvet R. 67. Moutha-Sebtaoui N. 18. Rodes N. 9. Toshevski D.	11. Abid A. 53. Assengue S. 4. Bates D. 5. Bolingoli B. 45. Godfroid M. (G) 9. Henry T. 14. Kuavita L. 19. Mitongo R. 33. Spoden C.
Coaches
Milkon H.	Euvrard V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Hautekiet I. ⚽, Mohr T. (A),
31', Viltard M. 🟨,
39', Marijnissen L. 🟨,
44', Berte M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Marijnissen L. ↓, De Fougerolles L. ↑,
57', De Fougerolles L. 🟨,
58', Mehssatou Sepulveda N. ↓, Kuavita L. ↑,
65', Viltard M. ↓, Koton K. ↑,
65', Jahanbakhsh A. ↓, Kvet R. ↑,
73', Cools K. ↓, Toshevski D. ↑,
77', Nkada T. ↓, Henry T. ↑,
78', Eckert Ayensa D. ↓, Abid A. ↑,
81', Sambu M. ↓, Hrncar D. ↑,
84', Pirard L. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dender EH won 1.

Dender EH is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Standard has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Standard may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Dender EH: Dion M. S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Standard: Bates D. (Knee Injury) Dierckx D. (Shoulder Injury) El Hankouri M. (Inactive) Epolo M. (International duty) Fossey M. (Muscle Injury) Said R. (International duty)

There are questionable in Standard: Nielsen C. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dender EH won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dender EH won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Standard Liège - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.8%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
14.12.25	Dender EH - Club Brugge	1:5 ✺
05.12.25	RAAL La Louvière - Dender EH	1:2 ✺
Belgian Cup
02.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	3:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
29.11.25	Dender EH - Westerlo	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Royal Antwerp - Dender EH	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWWTW
- Standard Liège
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
12.12.25	Standard Liège - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Standard Liège	1:2 ✺
Belgian Cup
02.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	3:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
28.11.25	KV Mechelen - Standard Liège	0:1 ✺
21.11.25	Standard Liège - Zulte Waregem	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Cup
02.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	3:2
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
02.08.25	Standard Liège - Dender EH	1:1
17.05.25	Standard Liège - Dender EH	0:0
13.04.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	1:1
26.01.25	Standard Liège - Dender EH	1:0
13.09.24	Dender EH - Standard Liège	0:2
Belgian Cup
08.11.22	Dender EH - Standard Liège	0:1

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