Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 12

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Tierra de Campeones (Iquique)

Referee: Gonzalez F. (Chi)


	Deportes Iquique		Unión La Calera

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.1
	2.6	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.57	3.35	2.84
	2.54	3.19	2.79	Watch
	2.6	3	2.7
	2.57	3.15	2.79	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.21)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	2.89 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Iquique
37.7%

Draw
29.7%

Unión La Calera
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

29%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.1%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Iquique has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Unión La Calera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Iquique than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Iquique, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión La Calera than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Deportes Iquique - Unión La Calera Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Iquique (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Deportes Iquique (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Unión La Calera (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Iquique (votes: 3 - 50%). Unión La Calera (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Requena L. (G) 3. Ferreyra T. 7. Gomez J. 13. Jorquera M. 26. Saborit E. 5. Fuentes C. 11. Ramos A. 14. Davila Carvajal M. 36. Bacca J. 10. Puch E. (C) 50. Marcotti L.	1. Pena Jorge (G) 2. Saldias J. 4. Ulloa D. 6. Campos Mosqueira F. 14. Brunet N. 5. Moya C. 8. De Los Santos E. 21. Alvarez Wallace A. 24. Yanez F. 11. Saez S. (C) 27. Mesias Gonzalez I. S.
Substitutes
24. Barrera B. 30. Blazquez M. 21. Fernandez C. D. N. 17. Gonzalez C. 23. Hoyos E. 20. Orellana D. 1. Reyes M. (G)	13. Ballesteros J. M. (G) 25. Diaz C. 18. Encinas A. 32. Hiriart M. 7. Insaurralde C. 10. Lobos F. 19. Lopez F.
Coaches
Diaz F.	Lemma W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Jorquera M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Bacca J. ↓, Orellana D. ↑,
58', Yanez F. ↓, Insaurralde C. ↑,
58', Marcotti L. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
61', De Los Santos E. ↓, Diaz C. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Saez S. ⚽, Insaurralde C. (A),
65', Alvarez Wallace A. 🟥,
78', Saez S. ↓, Mendez Gonzalez J. E. ↑,
79', Mesias Gonzalez I. S. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
83', Jorquera M. ↓, Hoyos E. ↑,
90+1', Ferreyra T. ↓, Blazquez M. ↑,
90+1', Fuentes C. ↓, Fernandez C. D. N. ↑,
90+8', Blazquez M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga de Ascenso and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Iquique won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Unión La Calera may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Deportes Iquique won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Iquique won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Iquique
Chilean Primera Division
19.05.25	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Iquique	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.25	Cienciano - Deportes Iquique	4:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Iquique	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.25	Deportes Iquique - Atlético Mineiro	3:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
04.05.25	Deportes Iquique - Huachipato	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LLLWW
- Unión La Calera
Chilean Cup
20.05.25	Unión La Calera - San Luis de Quillota	0:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
16.05.25	Unión La Calera - Coquimbo Unido	0:1 ✺
04.05.25	Ñublense - Unión La Calera	1:1 ✺
25.04.25	Unión La Calera - Audax Italiano	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Everton de Viña - Unión La Calera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
03.08.24	Deportes Iquique - Unión La Calera	1:1
03.03.24	Unión La Calera - Deportes Iquique	1:3
28.01.21	Unión La Calera - Deportes Iquique	1:2
24.09.20	Deportes Iquique - Unión La Calera	0:3
22.11.19	Unión La Calera - Deportes Iquique	Canceled
11.05.19	Deportes Iquique - Unión La Calera	1:0
26.08.18	Unión La Calera - Deportes Iquique	1:0

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