Match Info

Copa Chile - Round 5

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza (Limache)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	TNT Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Deportes Limache		San Marcos de Arica

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.75	4.5
	1.46	4.1	5.5
	1.57	3.95	4.60
	1.50	4.36	5.56
	1.55	4.42	4.93	Watch
	1.43	4.25	5.45
	1.45	4.25	5.74	Watch
	1.45	4.20	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.36)	4.29 ↓ (4.73)	5.19 ↓ (6.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Limache
61.2%

Draw
21.2%

San Marcos de Arica
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

19.1%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

14.4%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Limache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportes Limache's form might have worsened.

San Marcos de Arica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Limache than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Limache that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportes Limache - San Marcos de Arica Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Limache (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Deportes Limache will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Borquez M. (G) 23. Gonzalez Y. 24. Parot A. (C) 5. Alfonzo A. 25. Llanten M. 21. Moya F. 16. Jean David 8. Montecinos J. 11. Rojas J. 26. Arturia M. 19. Castro D.	13. Tapia B. (G) 15. Cubillos G. 23. Cazula A. 28. Rivera N. 17. Moya Godoy M. 18. Galleguillos A. 8. Barrios A. (C) 4. Iturra M. 19. Maidana A. 7. Monroy B. 33. Benavides E.
Substitutes
2. Aguirre A. 15. Alvarez V. 17. Gonzalez C. (G) 31. Martinez D. 3. Molina B. 7. Morales C. 29. Oyarzun F. 9. Sosa G.	20. Abalos A. 22. Donadell N. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C. 30. Munoz J. (G) 24. Pereira D. 26. Rencoret C. 10. Sagredo B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Maidana A. 🟨,
24', Rojas J. ↓, Molina B. ↑,
25', 0 - 1, Moya Godoy M. ⚽, Barrios A. (A),
29', Alfonzo A. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Arturia M. ⚽,
41', Benavides E. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Alfonzo A. ↓, Aguirre A. ↑,
46', Arturia M. ↓, Sosa G. ↑,
46', Moya F. ↓, Alvarez V. ↑,
46', Iturra M. ↓, Rencoret C. ↑,
46', Monroy B. ↓, Melivilu Fuentes C. ↑,
46', Galleguillos A. ↓, Donadell N. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Aguirre A. ⚽, Jean David (A),
57', 3 - 1, Castro D. ⚽,
63', Montecinos J. ↓, Morales C. ↑,
65', Maidana A. ↓, Sagredo B. ↑,
71', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Oyarzun F. ↑,
72', Rivera N. ↓, Abalos A. ↑,
75', Castro D. 🟨,
78', Benavides E. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
81', 4 - 1, Castro D. ⚽,
87', Cazula A. 🟨,
90', Llanten M. 🟨,
90+1', Sagredo B. 🟨,
90+2', Parot A. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Limache has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Marcos de Arica is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

San Marcos de Arica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Limache is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Limache won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Limache won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Limache
Chilean Cup
01.07.26	Deportes Limache - Coquimbo Unido	1:1 ✺
27.06.26	Deportes Limache - Deportes Iquique	1:4 ✺
23.06.26	Coquimbo Unido - Deportes Limache	1:1 ✺
19.06.26	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Limache	1:3 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
14.06.26	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Limache	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TLTWL
- San Marcos de Arica
Chilean Cup
27.06.26	San Marcos de Arica - Coquimbo Unido	0:1 ✺
19.06.26	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Limache	1:3 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
05.06.26	San Luis de Quillota - San Marcos de Arica	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Temuco	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - San Marcos de Arica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
19.06.26	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Limache	1:3
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
05.10.24	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Limache	0:2
20.05.24	Deportes Limache - San Marcos de Arica	1:3
Chilean Segunda Division
25.09.22	Deportes Limache - San Marcos de Arica	1:0
11.06.22	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Limache	2:0

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