Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 18

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Deportes Tolima		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.1	8.5	Watch
	1.37	4.33	8
	1.42	4.2	8.6	Watch
	1.43	4.09	9.59
	1.43	3.94	8.83	Watch
	1.36	4	9
	1.43	4.2	8.1	Watch
	1.42	4.2	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.36)	4.13 ↓ (4.4)	8.65 ↑ (7.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
66.5%

Draw
22.7%

Unión Magdalena
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

20.8%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.9%

19.8%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Fiermarin C. (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 3. Quinones J. (C) 4. Quinones J. 33. Velasquez S. 15. Nieto J. 80. Rovira B. 23. Castro A. 18. Perez K. 25. Arroyo A. 24. Parra Osorio A.	34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 4. Murillo D. 33. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 5. Payares M. 25. Penaloza J. 30. Mosquera D. 22. Barreto O. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 18. Molina F. 10. Sarmiento J. (C) 21. Marquez R.
Substitutes
12. Azcarate J. (G) 7. Gonzalez J. 11. Lencina G. 28. Miranda L. 19. Mosquera F. 42. Quinones J. 16. Reyes C.	17. Blanco R. 9. Diaz K. 3. Mera D. 1. Restrepo E. (G) 8. Sanchez V. 29. Surmay O. 26. Tello J.
Coaches
Rescalvo I.	Garcia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Perez K. ⚽, Arroyo A. (A),
43', 2 - 0, Perez K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Barreto O. ↓, Blanco R. ↑,
46', Penaloza J. ↓, Tello J. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Sarmiento J. ⚽,
59', Quinones J. 🟨,
73', Perez K. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
73', Arroyo A. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
79', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Lencina G. ↑,
79', Nieto J. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
81', Molina F. ↓, Surmay O. ↑,
81', Murillo D. ↓, Mera D. ↑,
81', Quinones J. 🟨,
84', Marquez R. ↓, Sanchez V. ↑,
87', Castro A. ↓, Miranda L. ↑,
90+1', Payares M. 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 1, Rovira B. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Deportes Tolima is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
03.05.25	Deportivo Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
15.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWLTW
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
04.05.25	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	Abandoned ✺
26.04.25	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 ?LTTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
27.10.23	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	2:1
13.05.23	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	1:1
18.07.22	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	2:1
31.01.22	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	2:1
14.09.19	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	1:2
23.03.19	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	1:0

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