Match Info

Primera Premier - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Deportiva Venados		Celaya

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.39	2.26	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.25
	2.81	3.24	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.83)	3.31 ↑ (3.24)	2.25 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportiva Venados
32.2%

Draw
27.5%

Celaya
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

27.8%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportiva Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

The chances for Celaya have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Deportiva Venados - Celaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, ⚽,
21', 2 - 1, ⚽,
43', 2 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Primera Premier Playoffs and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Primera Premier Playoffs).

Celaya may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Deportiva Venados has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Deportiva Venados against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportiva Venados
Mexican Primera Premier
12.09.26	Deportiva Venados - Jaguares de Chiapas	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Montañeses - Deportiva Venados	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
09.05.26	Alacranes de Durango - Deportiva Venados	0:0 ✺
06.05.26	Deportiva Venados - Alacranes de Durango	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Real Apodaca - Deportiva Venados	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WTTWW
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Primera Premier
19.09.26	Celaya - Montañeses	0:1 ✺
11.09.26	Chapulineros de Oaxaca - Celaya	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Celaya - Tapachula Soconusco	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Pioneros de Cancún - Celaya	0:3 ✺
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
25.04.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Celaya	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.02.26	Deportiva Venados - Celaya	1:1
20.09.25	Celaya - Deportiva Venados	1:2

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