Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	16:15	SuperSport 2
Argentina	11:15	Disney+
Armenia	18:15	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	01:15	beIN Connect
Austria	16:15	DAZN
Bangladesh	20:15	Begin
Belgium	16:15	DAZN 1
Bolivia	10:15	ESPN 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:15	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	11:15	SportyNet
Bulgaria	17:15	Max Sport 4
Cambodia	21:15	MyTV
Canada	10:15	TSN+
China	22:15	Migu
Croatia	16:15	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	17:15	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	16:15	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	16:15	Disney+
Ecuador	09:15	ESPN 2
Finland	17:15	Disney+
France	16:15	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	18:15	Silk Sport 1
Germany	16:15	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	22:15	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	16:15	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	14:15	Disney+
India	19:45	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	21:15	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	17:15	ONE Sport
Italy	16:15	DAZN Italia
Japan	23:15	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	17:15	Gotv
Kosovo	16:15	ART Sport 4
Laos	21:15	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Maldives	19:15	Medianet
Malta	16:15	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	08:15	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	16:15	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	03:15	beIN Connect
Nigeria	15:15	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	16:15	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	11:15	ESPN 2
Peru	09:15	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	22:15	beIN Connect
Portugal	15:15	DAZN 3, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	17:15	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	17:15	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	16:15	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	22:15	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	16:15	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	16:15	SportKlub 2
South Africa	16:15	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	23:15	Coupang Play
Spain	16:15	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	16:15	Disney+
Switzerland	16:15	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	22:15	DAZN
Thailand	21:15	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	17:15	S Sport
Ukraine	17:15	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	11:15	Disney+
Usa	10:15	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:15	Disney+, ESPN 2
Vietnam	21:15	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Deportivo Alavés		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.70	1.80	Watch
	4.33	3.60	1.83
	4.50	3.75	1.75	Watch
	4.65	3.73	1.86
	4.52	3.73	1.81
	4.60	3.65	1.82
	4.63	3.75	1.79	Watch
	4.60	3.80	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.52 ↑ (4.08)	3.71 ↑ (3.67)	1.81 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
21.2%

Draw
25.8%

Atlético Madrid
53%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.2%

25.8%

51%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

25.2%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.8%	7.5%	88.7%

Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (47 of 53 users predict this - 88.68%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.15% – 97.21%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivera A. (G) 14. Tenaglia N. 2. Valentini N. 17. Jonny Otto 7. Perez A. 4. Suarez D. 8. Blanco A. (C) 19. Ibanez P. 21. Rebbach A. 11. Martinez T. 15. Boye L.	13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 21. Romero C. 24. Le Normand R. 22. Grimaldo A. 6. Koke (C) 5. Cardoso J. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 11. Lookman A. 15. David J.
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 24. Diallo Selu M. 9. Diaz M. 6. Guevara A. 16. Koski V. 20. Manas A. 12. Novoa Ramos H. 27. Olaiz X. 23. Protesoni C. 13. Rodriguez A. (G) 22. Rodriguez M. 3. Yusi	19. Alvarez J. 10. Baena A. 46. Castillo J. 27. Dominguez J. 17. Hancko D. 23. Hjulmand M. 7. Lee Kang-In 30. Martinez D. 1. Musso J. (G) 16. Ortiz A. 18. Pubill M. 9. Sorloth A.
Coaches
Sanchez Flores Q.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Grimaldo A. ⚽, David J. (A),
45', Lookman A. 🟨,
45+2', Le Normand R. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 1, Boye L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', David J. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
47', Lookman A. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
57', Barrios P. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
61', Perez A. 🟥,
62', Le Normand R. ↓, Hancko D. ↑,
64', Blanco A. ↓, Protesoni C. ↑,
64', Martinez T. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
65', Boye L. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
71', Valentini N. ↓, Koski V. ↑,
73', Simeone G. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
79', Suarez D. ↓, Manas A. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Romero C. ⚽, Baena A. (A),
90+2', Cardoso J. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Atlético carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended) Koski V. (Muscle Injury) Rodriguez M. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Alavés has recorded 2 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:26 (averaging 0.6:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alavés against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with 6:9 goals (averaging 0.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	10	8	1	1	20:8	12	25
7	Alaves	10	3	3	4	14:11	3	12

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 6.5% Alaves: 0.2%

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Alavés - the odds 4.08 are the expected chance of winning is 23.21%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
19.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Valencia	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Racing Santander - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	5:2 ✺
28.08.26	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLLWW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
16.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	4:0 ✺
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
18.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
30.08.25	Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid	1:1
03.05.25	Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid	0:0
23.11.24	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	2:1
21.04.24	Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid	2:0
29.10.23	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	2:1
02.04.22	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	4:1

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