Match Info

LaLiga - Round 4

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, New World Sport 3, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	16:15	SuperSport 2
Argentina	11:15	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	18:15	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6
Australia	00:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	16:15	Laola1
Bolivia	10:15	ESPN 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:15	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	11:15	SportyNet
Bulgaria	17:15	Max Sport 4
Canada	10:15	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	09:15	ESPN 3
Croatia	16:15	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	17:15	Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	16:15	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	16:15	Disney+
Ecuador	09:15	ESPN 3
Finland	17:15	Disney+
France	16:15	DAZN France, Disney+
Germany	16:15	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Greece	17:15	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	16:15	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	14:15	Disney+
India	19:45	FanCode, FanCode
Italy	16:15	DAZN Italia
Japan	23:15	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	16:15	ART Sport 4
Malta	16:15	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	08:15	Sky Sport
Netherlands	16:15	Ziggo Sport 2
Norway	16:15	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	09:15	Disney+, ESPN 3
Portugal	15:15	DAZN 2, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	17:15	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3
Russia	17:15	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV
Serbia	16:15	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	16:15	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	16:15	SportKlub 2
Spain	16:15	M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
Sweden	16:15	Disney+
Turkey	17:15	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	17:15	MEGOGO Futbol 2
Uruguay	11:15	Disney+
Usa	10:15	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	10:15	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Athletic Bilbao		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.4	Watch
	2.80	3.40	2.45
	2.9	3.3	2.42	Watch
	3.11	3.4	2.49
	2.96	3.51	2.45
	3.05	3.3	2.4
	3.13	3.44	2.47	Watch
	2.95	3.35	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.79)	3.38 ↓ (3.61)	2.44 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
32.3%

Draw
28.4%

Atlético Madrid
39.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.3%

27.3%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

27.6%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	7.1%	82.1%

Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). Atlético will win (votes: 23 - 82.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 67.9% – 96.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Athletic (2.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 20%). Atlético (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 12. Areso J. 5. Alvarez Y. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 24. Gerenabarrena B. 23. Navarro R. 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 9. Williams I. (C)	13. Oblak J. (C) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 22. Grimaldo A. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 23. Hjulmand M. 11. Lookman A. 7. Lee Kang-In 10. Baena A.
Substitutes
7. Berenguer A. 11. Guruzeta G. 18. Jauregizar M. 31. Louis-Jean J. 30. Monreal I. 13. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 6. Prados Diaz B. 20. Rego A. 15. Rincon H. 44. Sanchez S. 21. Sannadi M.	19. Alvarez J. 5. Cardoso J. 46. Castillo J. 15. David J. 27. Dominguez J. 6. Koke 24. Le Normand R. 30. Martinez D. 4. Mendoza R. 1. Musso J. (G) 16. Ortiz A. 21. Romero C.
Coaches
Terzic E.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Lee Kang-In 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Alvarez Y. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Williams N. ⚽,
48', 2 - 0, Navarro R. ⚽, Williams I. (A),
58', Lookman A. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
59', Hjulmand M. ↓, Koke ↑,
59', Lee Kang-In ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
59', Simeone G. ↓, Romero C. ↑,
60', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Jauregizar M. ↑,
66', Navarro R. ↓, Louis-Jean J. ↑,
66', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
76', Williams N. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
76', Baena A. ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Sancet O. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.

Recent performances by Athletic have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Athletic: Canales P. (Muscle Injury) Djalo A. (Coach's decision) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Serrano N. (Coach's decision) Vivian D. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Sorloth A. (Muscle Injury) Vargas O. (Coach's decision)

There are questionable in Athletic: Prados Diaz B. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.4:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	10	8	1	1	20:8	12	25
8	Ath Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12:9	3	12

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 6.42% Ath Bilbao: 0.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 35.29%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 37.44%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
30.08.26	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Burgos - Athletic Bilbao	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLLLW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
29.08.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:2 ✺
19.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Málaga	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Manchester United - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
25.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:2
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0
01.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
31.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:1
27.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0
07.02.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	0:1

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