Match Info

LaLiga - Round 4

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, New World Sport 3, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	Laola1
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	SportyNet
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Malta	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Spain	M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
Sweden	Disney+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Athletic Bilbao		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.4	Watch
	2.80	3.40	2.45
	2.9	3.3	2.42	Watch
	3.11	3.4	2.49
	2.96	3.51	2.45
	3.05	3.3	2.4
	3.13	3.44	2.47	Watch
	2.95	3.35	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.79)	3.38 ↓ (3.61)	2.44 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
32.3%

Draw
28.4%

Atlético Madrid
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

27.3%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

27.8%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	7.1%	82.1%

Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). Atlético will win (votes: 23 - 82.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 67.9% – 96.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Athletic (2.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 20%). Atlético (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 12. Areso J. 5. Alvarez Y. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 24. Gerenabarrena B. 23. Navarro R. 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 9. Williams I. (C)	13. Oblak J. (C) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 22. Grimaldo A. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 23. Hjulmand M. 11. Lookman A. 7. Lee Kang-In 10. Baena A.
Substitutes
7. Berenguer A. 11. Guruzeta G. 18. Jauregizar M. 31. Louis-Jean J. 30. Monreal I. 13. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 6. Prados Diaz B. 20. Rego A. 15. Rincon H. 44. Sanchez S. 21. Sannadi M.	19. Alvarez J. 5. Cardoso J. 46. Castillo J. 15. David J. 27. Dominguez J. 6. Koke 24. Le Normand R. 30. Martinez D. 4. Mendoza R. 1. Musso J. (G) 16. Ortiz A. 21. Romero C.
Coaches
Terzic E.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Lee Kang-In 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Alvarez Y. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Williams N. ⚽,
48', 2 - 0, Navarro R. ⚽, Williams I. (A),
58', Lookman A. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
59', Hjulmand M. ↓, Koke ↑,
59', Lee Kang-In ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
59', Simeone G. ↓, Romero C. ↑,
60', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Jauregizar M. ↑,
66', Navarro R. ↓, Louis-Jean J. ↑,
66', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
76', Williams N. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
76', Baena A. ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Sancet O. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.

Recent performances by Athletic have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Athletic: Canales P. (Muscle Injury) Djalo A. (Coach's decision) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Serrano N. (Coach's decision) Vivian D. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Sorloth A. (Muscle Injury) Vargas O. (Coach's decision)

There are questionable in Athletic: Prados Diaz B. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.4:0.4).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.41% Ath Bilbao: 0.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 35.29%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 37.44%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
30.08.26	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Burgos - Athletic Bilbao	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLLLW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
29.08.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:2 ✺
19.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Málaga	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Manchester United - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
25.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:2
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0
01.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
31.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:1
27.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0
07.02.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	0:1

Upcoming Matches