Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Sesma M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Startimes Sports Life
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
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Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Finland	Disney+
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Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
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Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
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Italy	DAZN Italia
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Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV
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Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
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Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
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Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online


	Deportivo Alavés		Valencia

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.40	5.50	Watch
	1.73	3.50	5.25
	1.66	3.55	5.80	Watch
	1.78	3.59	5.50
	1.68	3.78	5.37	Watch
	1.73	3.55	5.45
	1.75	3.45	5.57	Watch
	1.77	3.65	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.23)	3.56 ↑ (3.2)	5.46 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
55.5%

Draw
26.9%

Valencia
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

29.7%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

29.4%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Alavés's performance.

Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valencia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Alavés that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valencia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	8.3%	5%

Deportivo Alavés - Valencia Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Alavés will win (votes: 52 - 86.7%). Valencia will win (votes: 3 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 78.1% – 95.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Alavés (2.18) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Deportivo Alavés will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 9 - 90%). Valencia (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivera A. (G) 14. Tenaglia N. 16. Koski V. 2. Valentini N. 7. Perez A. 19. Ibanez P. 8. Blanco A. (C) 4. Suarez D. 21. Rebbach A. 15. Boye L. 11. Martinez T.	1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 24. Maffeo P. 18. Pepelu 12. De Haas J. 14. Gaya J. (C) 23. Ugrinic F. 33. Mayol A. 2. Rodriguez G. 7. Danjuma A. 8. Guerra J. 9. Duro H.
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 24. Diallo Selu M. 9. Diaz M. 6. Guevara A. 29. Hernandez I. 17. Jonny Otto 12. Novoa Ramos H. 27. Olaiz X. 23. Protesoni C. 13. Rodriguez A. (G) 22. Rodriguez M. 3. Yusi	37. Blazquez A. 36. Cordoba I. 15. Dieng A. 10. Elliott H. 22. Martinez A. 27. Otorbi D. 29. Panach A. 19. Raba D. 11. Rioja L. 39. Sato R. 25. van Oevelen K. (G) 21. Vazquez J.
Coaches
Sanchez Flores Q.	Sanchez O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Guerra J. 🟨,
21', Blanco A. 🟨,
45+2', Pepelu 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Mayol A. 🟨,
61', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
63', Duro H. ↓, Rioja L. ↑,
67', Martinez T. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
67', Suarez D. ↓, Yusi ↑,
70', Rodriguez G. ↓, Otorbi D. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Rioja L. ⚽, Guerra J. (A),
82', De Haas J. ↓, Cordoba I. ↑,
82', Rioja L. ↓, Vazquez J. ↑,
82', Maffeo P. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
85', Perez A. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
85', Blanco A. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
85', Rebbach A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 2.

Alavés is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Valencia is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Valencia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alavés is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended) Manas A. (Injury) Rodriguez M. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Valencia: Canos S. (Knee Injury) Copete J. (Ankle Injury) Diakhaby M. (Muscle Injury) Foulquier D. (Injury) Lopez D. (Knee Injury) Sadiq U. (Muscle Injury) Tarrega C. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Valencia: Rioja L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Alaves: 0.4% Valencia: 0.31%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11:6	5	11
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4:13	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Alavés - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.64%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Valencia - the odds 3.44 are the expected chance of winning is 27.64%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
12.09.26	Racing Santander - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	5:2 ✺
28.08.26	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
20.08.26	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Deportivo Alavés - Getafe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LWWTW
- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
11.09.26	Sevilla - Valencia	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Valencia - Barcelona	0:5 ✺
30.08.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Valencia	3:1 ✺
25.08.26	Valencia - Betis	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Valencia - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
08.03.26	Valencia - Deportivo Alavés	3:2
20.10.25	Deportivo Alavés - Valencia	0:0
14.05.25	Deportivo Alavés - Valencia	1:0
22.12.24	Valencia - Deportivo Alavés	2:2
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Valencia - Deportivo Alavés	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
05.05.24	Valencia - Deportivo Alavés	0:1
02.09.23	Deportivo Alavés - Valencia	1:0

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