The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Deportivo Alavés 53.4%
Draw 26.5%
Ponferradina 20.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.5%
28%
27.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.4%
27.4%
27.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Alavés's performance.
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Alavés that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponferradina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
85.4%
4.9%
9.8%
Deportivo Alavés - Ponferradina Predictions
Users Predictions:
Deportivo Alavés will win
(35 of 41 users predict this - 85.37%). Confidence interval (95%): 74.55% – 96.19%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Preview
Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga and 13).
Alavés has the most likely position - 1 (13.66%), has project points - 68, has currently - 15, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (34%), has a chance of promoted (32%), has a small chance of win league (14%).
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 17 (6.11%), has project points - 53, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (22%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).
This event has quality34, importance35, match rating35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Alavés won 3.
Alavés is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Ponferradina is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Alavés could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Alavés is a favorite.
Last 6 head-to-head matches Alavés won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-7.
Including matches at home between the teams Alavés won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.
Watch
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