Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 15

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas (Buenos Aires)


	San Miguel		Almirante Brown

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.57	3.6	Watch
	2.4	2.65	3.3
	2.4	2.58	3.5	Watch
	2.49	2.63	3.57
	2.55	2.45	3.69	Watch
	2.4	2.5	3.5
	2.4	2.54	3.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.46)	2.56 ↓ (2.6)	3.52 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Miguel
37.8%

Draw
36%

Almirante Brown
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

35.9%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

36.6%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Almirante Brown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

San Miguel - Almirante Brown Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. San Miguel will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Almirante Brown will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Miguel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ledesma Reynoso M. (G) 4. Coronel F. 2. Cardozo F. 6. Ceceri K. 3. Cruz A. 7. Oses M. 5. Ramirez I. (C) 8. Serra M. 10. Ferrero J. 11. Delgado L. 9. Nasta B.	1. Galvan B. (G) 4. Cardozo E. 2. Levi M. 6. Cabral G. (C) 3. Fernandez R. 7. Abreliano M. 5. Jara L. 8. Altamirano G. 10. Almada T. 9. Martinez E. 11. Vega L.
Substitutes
13. Aguirre F. 20. Almeida F. 16. Benitez M. 18. Brochero L. 15. De la Cruz E. 12. Escobar M. (G) 19. Juarez D. 17. Muller D. 14. Renteria D.	13. Alegre Rojas G. 12. Bottini A. (G) 16. Gauna S. 20. Gonzalez R. 18. Pascual L. 17. Quignon F. 15. Velurtas P. 14. Villoldo T. 19. Zarate T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Ferrero J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Cruz A. 🟨,
63', Vega L. ↓, Pascual L. ↑,
63', Almada T. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
66', Delgado L. ↓, Almeida F. ↑,
66', Oses M. ↓, Juarez D. ↑,
73', Ramirez I. 🟨,
77', Serra M. ↓, Brochero L. ↑,
77', Altamirano G. ↓, Gauna S. ↑,
77', Cruz A. ↓, De la Cruz E. ↑,
81', Martinez E. ↓, Quignon F. ↑,
81', Abreliano M. ↓, Villoldo T. ↑,
86', Ramirez I. ↓, Muller D. ↑,
90+4', Gauna S. 🟨,
90+5', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 0, Juarez D. ⚽, Brochero L. (A),
90+7', Serra M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

San Miguel has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Almirante Brown is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

San Miguel could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Miguel won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, San Miguel won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Almirante Brown - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 26.09%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.05.26	Mitre - San Miguel	4:0 ✺
09.05.26	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
30.04.26	All Boys - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	San Miguel - Los Andes	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Godoy Cruz - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTTLT
- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.26	Almirante Brown - San Telmo	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Acassuso - Almirante Brown	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Almirante Brown - Chaco For Ever	1:0 ✺
28.04.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Almirante Brown - Central Norte	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
13.10.19	Almirante Brown - San Miguel	3:0
02.03.19	Almirante Brown - San Miguel	0:0
21.09.18	San Miguel - Almirante Brown	0:0
03.03.18	Almirante Brown - San Miguel	1:2
08.10.17	San Miguel - Almirante Brown	2:0

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