Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 34

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero) 🌤️ ...


	Güemes		Club Almagro

	1	X	2
	7.00	3.50	1.45
	6.50	3.70	1.50
	6.75	3.70	1.46	Watch
	7.21	3.91	1.52
	6.9	3.67	1.55	Watch
	6.90	3.65	1.50
	7.23	3.61	1.53	Watch
	6.40	3.60	1.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.86 ↑ (2.45)	3.67 ↑ (3.17)	1.5 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
13.4%

Draw
25.1%

Club Almagro
61.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.5%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

28.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-24.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Güemes's form might have worsened.

Club Almagro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+29%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Club Almagro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+23.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Güemes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (-27.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Club Almagro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Güemes - Club Almagro Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Güemes will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Almagro will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Güemes (votes: 1 - 50%). Almagro (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Finochietto L. (G) 2. Gonzalez A. 5. Baier G. 6. Melillan F. 3. Arnay R. 7. Farrera S. 4. Gerez M. 8. Juarez J. 10. Pugliese G. 9. Leineker C. 11. Carranza J.	1. Gonzalez E. (G) 2. Chamorro S. 5. Vitale J. 6. Cortave M. 3. Silcan E. 7. Marchioni J. 4. Asis G. 8. Martinez E. 11. Macies T. 10. Bustos J. 9. De La Vega F.
Substitutes
16. Cassini M. 18. Gerez B. 14. Guinazu L. 12. Palleres T. (G) 15. Pinto A. 13. Silisque R. 17. Tevez A. (G)	12. Anchoverri S. (G) 15. Blanco P. 17. Bustamante F. 18. Dornell T. 14. Flores J. 13. Marco F. 19. Orlando J. 16. Pinto F. 20. Salto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Farrera S. ⚽, Pugliese G. (A),
15', Macies T. ↓, Orlando J. ↑,
21', 1 - 1, Martinez E. ⚽, De La Vega F. (A),
26', Chamorro S. ↓, Pinto F. ↑,
28', Orlando J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', Asis G. 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Leineker C. ⚽, Carranza J. (A),
73', Martinez E. ↓, Bustamante F. ↑,
73', Bustos J. ↓, Salto C. ↑,
73', De La Vega F. ↓, Dornell T. ↑,
76', Farrera S. ↓, Pinto A. ↑,
84', Carranza J. ↓, Guinazu L. ↑,
88', Bustamante F. 🟨,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 12th).

Güemes is Relegated to.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Güemes won 2.

Güemes is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Almagro has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Güemes may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Almagro holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Our forecast points to a victory for Almagro in today's match, at odds of 1.3.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Güemes has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:8 (averaging 0.6:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Güemes against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 3:5 goals (averaging 0.8:1.3 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.10.26	Patronato Parana - Güemes	2:0 ✺
04.10.26	Güemes - Colegiales	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Quilmes - Güemes	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Güemes - Ferrocarril Midland	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Güemes	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.10.26	Club Almagro - Chacarita Juniors	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	San Martín de San Juan - Club Almagro	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Club Almagro - Nueva Chicago	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Temperley - Club Almagro	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Club Almagro - Deportivo Maipú	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.05.26	Club Almagro - Güemes	2:0
04.10.25	Club Almagro - Güemes	0:1
31.05.25	Güemes - Club Almagro	1:1
16.10.23	Güemes - Club Almagro	1:0
03.06.23	Club Almagro - Güemes	1:1
19.06.22	Güemes - Club Almagro	1:2
01.11.21	Club Almagro - Güemes	0:0

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