Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 30

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero)


	Güemes		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
	3	2.75	2.55
	2.95	2.90	2.40
	3	2.82	2.42	Watch
	3.31	2.97	2.49
	3.11	2.92	2.51	Watch
	3.15	2.85	2.4
	3.12	2.76	2.4	Watch
	3	2.85	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.97)	2.85 ↑ (2.8)	2.45 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
30%

Draw
32.4%

Ferrocarril Midland
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

32.6%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

31.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Güemes - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Güemes will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Gonzalez A. 6. Melillan F. 3. Benitez M. 8. Gerez M. 5. Guinazu L. 11. Gerez B. 7. Veliz D. 9. Sanchez J. (C) 10. Pugliese G.	1. Leguiza M. (G) 4. Andrada I. 2. Cepeda G. 6. Castorani P. 3. Casarico P. 8. Camano J. 5. Violini N. (C) 10. Roseti M. 11. Luna R. 7. Bulacio D. 9. Cao R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Andrada I. ⚽, Bulacio D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sanchez J. ↓, Leineker C. ↑,
46', Gerez M. ↓, Pinto A. ↑,
55', Veliz D. ↓, Ortigoza I. ↑,
55', Guinazu L. ↓, Juarez J. ↑,
57', Luna R. ↓, Porro E. ↑,
64', Cao R. ↓, Abruzzese M. ↑,
68', Gerez B. 🟨,
75', Gonzalez A. ↓, Arnay R. ↑,
76', Cepeda G. 🟨,
82', Andrada I. ↓, Aguilar D. ↑,
82', Camano J. ↓, Penepil M. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Penepil M. ⚽,
90', Penepil M. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 6th in the Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Playoffs).

Güemes is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Ferrocarril has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ferrocarril may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Güemes has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.09.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Güemes	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes	1:1 ✺
24.08.26	Güemes - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Chacarita Juniors - Güemes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLTTT
- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.09.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	San Martín de San Juan - Ferrocarril Midland	3:2 ✺
02.09.26	Colegiales - Ferrocarril Midland	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Nueva Chicago	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Temperley - Ferrocarril Midland	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Güemes	2:1

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